5 keys for Razorbacks to defeat No. 18 Ole Miss

FAYETTEVILLE — Arkansas will be at home Saturday playing host to No. 18 Ole Miss in Razorback Stadium.

Arkansas (5-3, 3-2) is an 8-point underdog to Ole Miss (6-2, 2-2). Lane Kiffin and Sam Pittman are both in their fifth year of coaching at the current schools. The two have split the first four games with each winning at home both times.

In 2020 the Hogs took a 33-21 win and then in 2022 it was 42-27 for Arkansas. In Oxford, Ole Miss won a 52-51 thriller in 2021 with the Arkansas two-point conversion to win it failing. Last season, Ole Miss won 27-20. So all the games have been good ones in this series.

A win Saturday would make the Razorbacks bowl eligible heading into the bye week preceding Texas, Louisiana Tech and Missouri to end the regular season.

Here’s five keys for the Hogs winning.

Don’t Turn Ball Over, Keep Penalties at Minimal Number

This one was the No. 1 key last week and it will be the No. 1 key when they host Texas. The proof is in the numbers. Arkansas turned it over three times against Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and LSU. They lost all three games. In the five games where Arkansas didn’t have three turnovers they won each game. Against OSU, Taylen Green threw a pick-6. In the loss to the Aggies, Arkansas fumbled at its own 10. Then against LSU, Green’s pass was tipped and intercepted at his own 5-yard line and returned to the 2. LSU scored on the next play and went on to dominate the final 20 minutes of the game. If the Hogs play a clean game avoiding turnovers they can beat anyone. Turn it over three or more times anyone can beat them. With rain, possibly heavy rain, in the forecast protecting the football is even more important.

Apply Pressure to Jaxson Dart

Arkansas struggled mightily against LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier and it’s probably a no-brainer Kiffin has watched that LSU tape. Arkansas has had success against inexperienced quarterbacks, but Nussmeier and OSU’s Alan Bowman had success against them. The Hogs need to apply pressure to Dart as they did in past meetings and not let him get comfortable. The Hogs also know that Ole Miss’ running back, Henry Parrish Jr., is very capable of hurting them. The Hogs went into LSU game with intentions to shut down their running game, but that didn’t happen. The Hogs need to pressure Dart and keep him uncomfortable from the start and not let Ole Miss gain confidence, If Dart is comfortable it could be a long day for the Hogs.

Don’t Waste Scoring Opportunities

The Hogs did a good job of this last week. Kicker Matthew Shipley was perfect on three field goal attempts. Yes they weren’t long ones, but neither were some of the misses against Oklahoma State and others this season by Shipley and Kyle Ramsey. Shipley was successful on field goals of 27, 32 and 29 yards against the Bulldogs. The Razorbacks obviously prefer seven points when in position to score, but three is much better than coming up empty on drives. Had they made a field goal against OSU instead of coming up short on a few drives they would won that game in regulation.

Tighten Up Pass Coverage

Travis Williams and the defensive staff are very good at what they do, but hopefully they don’t opt to provide cushions from their defensive backs they did against LSU. I get it that the theory was bend, but don’t break and it worked in various instances where the Razorbacks limited LSU to field goals. But a patient, experienced quarterback will pick that secondary apart. That is what Nussmeier did and Dart is likely to do the same if given the opportunity.

Jump on Ole Miss Early

The Hogs need to jump on Ole Miss early and not let up. Get the crowd into the game and dictate the pace to Kiffin’s team both on offense and defense. Ole Miss is a very dangerous team and capable of doing the same things LSU did. That is why the Razorbacks need to take control early and don’t take the foot off the gas.

Prediction: Arkansas 31 – Ole Miss 21