Hoop Hogs notebook: Arkansas-v-No. 14 Michigan preview, including Wolverines scout, keys to UA success, analytics

By Kevin McPherson

LITTLE ROCK — There are plenty of storylines when Arkansas faces No. 14 Michigan in the Jimmy V Classic this week at Madison Square Garden in New York, and chief among them is that the Razorbacks are looking for their first marquee win of the season against a ranked team in a Quad-1 win opportunity.

The Hoop Hogs (7-2, NCAA NET No. 49) and the Wolverines (8-1, 2-0 Big Ten, NCAA NET No. 25) will tip-off at 8 p.m. CT on Tuesday (ESPN).

The Hogs failed to lead even once in their prior two tries at knocking off Q1 opponents in contests against Baylor (a 72-67 loss in Dallas) and Illinois (a 90-77 loss in Kansas City) last month.

It’s not only a big-stage atmosphere to add their first quality win of the season, it’s the Razorbacks’ last chance in a 13-game non-conference slate to do so before the start of SEC play in early January.

The game also marks the reunion — in opposition this time — of Arkansas senior transfer guard Johnell “Nelly” Davis and his coach from last season at Florida Atlantic, first-year Michigan head coach Dusty May, as well as former FAU teammate and current Wolverines big man Vlad Goldin.

The Big Apple is also the stomping grounds of Arkansas’ star freshman guard Boogie Fland, who’ll be looking for a strong performance on the national stage in his return to his hometown.

Fland (15.0 points, 5.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 42.2% field goals, 40.5% from 3, 82.1% free throws, 32.4 minutes) and Davis (9.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steal, 47.7% field goals, 38.5% from 3, 87.5% free throws, 30.0 minutes) along with sophomore guard DJ Wagner (9.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 43.0% field goals, 34.5% from 3, 66.7% free throws) give the Hogs a starting backcourt trio that played its best basketball collectively in the team’s 76-73 come-from-behind road win over Miami in the SEC / ACC Challenge on Tuesday, Dec. 3, as they combined for 44 points on efficient shooting while totaling only 4 turnovers between them.

But in their last outing — a 75-60 come-from-behind win over mid-major Texas-San Antonio after trailing by 5 points at halftime — only Davis was efficient shooting as he finished with 13 points while Fland and Davis had subpar shooting and scoring games. Collectively, the trio committed 11 of the team’s 15 turnovers.

Through the first nine games of the season, the frontcourt center trio of Zvonimir Ivisic (has missed one game and part of another with injury), Jonas Aidoo (has missed 4 games and parts of 4 others with injury), and Trevon Brazile (has missed two games and parts of another with injury) have yet to play at full-go in the same game this season.

Ivisic (12.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 1.0 steal, 62.3% field goals, 57.6% from 3, 68.8% free throws) did not play against UTSA after going only 13 minutes against Miami. Perfect timing for the return of All SEC big man Aidoo, who totaled 39 minutes against Miami and UTSA (he played a season-high 27 minutes against the Road Runners) with a combined 12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 assists, and 2 steals while bringing some physical force in the paint. Brazile was effective in the paint, too, in the last two outings as he totaled 12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block in a combined 35 minutes.

Junior 3/4-combo forward Adou Thiero — the team’s season leader in scoring (18.6 points), rebounds (6.1), and steals (2.2) — had a monster double-double against UTSA (26 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 assists) after a poor showing against Miami earlier last week. Freshmen wings Billy Richmond III (6.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 65.8% field goals) and Karter Knox (4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 72.7% free throws) have had their positive moments providing depth off the bench.

As a team, the Hogs rank 19th in defensive efficiency rating according to KenPom.com. They’re 34th in D1 in points allowed per game (64.2), 39th in steals per game (9.4), 49th in forced turnovers per game (15.2), and 48th in blocks per game (4.8]. Arkansas is limiting teams to 40.4% overall field goal shooting, including 30.4% from 3 — both defensive marks rank the Hogs in the top 100 in D1. Additionally, Arkansas is committing only 14.0 fouls per game, resulting in opponents attempting only 12.4 free throws per outing, which ranks 5th among D1 teams.

Arkansas is 75th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings, but at first glance things aren’t so bad. The Hogs average 79.4 points per game (102nd in D1) with their best work coming in transition (16.7 fastbreak points per game ranks 17th in D1), and though they started slow shooting from three-point range in their first two games (a combined 9-of-39 for 23.1%) they’ve since warmed up in their last seven games (a collective 62-of-157 for 39.5%) to bring their efficiency on the season to 36.2% (ranks 97th in D1). Combined with 58.3% shooting on two-pointers (ranks 41st in D1), the Razorbacks are hitting 50.1% overall from the field (ranks 16th in D1).

The offensive issues are unforced errors leading to 12.4 turnovers per game, being one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in D1 (8.3 per game ranks 335th), a lack of drawing fouls to get to the free throw line (18.0 free throw attempts per outing ranks 254th in D1), and average free throw shooting efficiency in those limited FTAs (71.6% ranks 171st).

Scouting the Michigan Wolverines

Dusty May had huge success at FAU including a Final Four run two years ago, and he’s off to a great start in Ann Arbor, Mich., as the Wolverines have won seven consecutive games, including triumphs over then-No. 11 Wisconsin, then-No. 22 Xavier, Iowa, TCU, and Virginia Tech with their lone loss coming by two points a month ago at Wake Forest.

Michigan was unranked in the preseason and did not debut in the Associated Press Top 25 poll until Monday, Dec. 9, checking in impressively at No. 14.

The aforementioned Goldin — a 7-1 senior center from Russia — has been solid overall (12.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 60% field goals, 65.9% free throws), but especially so in the team’s two wins last week to open up Big Ten play as he averaged 22.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.0 assist in the two matchups against Wisconsin and Iowa.

Junior 7-foot center and Yale transfer Danny Wolf is averaging a double-double (12.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.3 steals, 55.8% field goals, 32.0% from 3, 65.2% free throws).

The Wolverines are led in scoring by 6-5 junior guard and Ohio State transfer Roddy Gayle, Jr. (12.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 steals, 49.4% field goals, 35.7% from 3, 71.4% free throws), while 6-3 junior guard Tre Donaldson is chipping in double-figure scoring as well (12.1 points, a team-leading 4.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds, 48.7% field goals, 45.5% from 3, 69.0% free throws). Veteran college journeyman Nimari Burnett is a steady hand as a backcourt starter (8.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steal, 51.8% field goals, 45.9% from 3, 62.5% free throws).

Forward Will Tschetter, guard Rubin Jones, guard LJ Cason, and forward Sam Walters provide depth and production off the bench as Michigan goes 9-deep in its two-deep rotation.

As a team, the Wolverines rank 11th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings and 43rd in offensive efficiency ratings. Michigan is holding teams to 63.1 points per game (ranks 28th in D1) while blocking 5.2 shots per (ranks 22nd in D1) and holding teams to 37.3% overall field goals shooting (ranks 11th in D1), 41.7% on two-point field goals (ranks 12th), and 29.1% from 3 (ranks 52nd). The frontline length with two 7-footers is altering shots in high volume in combination with being one of the best shot-blocking teams in the nation.

Offensively, Michigan is averaging 79.8 points per game (ranks 93rd in D1) on 17.1 assists (ranks 38th), but its 15.1 turnovers per outing (ranks as the 22nd most per game in D1) has been less than ideal. The Wolverines have similar offensive shooting efficiency numbers as the Hogs — 49.6% overall (ranks 26th), 60.7% on two-pointers (ranks 13th), and 35.2% from 3 (ranks 122nd). It’s a solid but not great offensive rebounding team (11.8 boards ranks 130th in D1) but a poor free throw shooting team (68.6% ranks 260th) on average volume (19.4 FTAs ranks 183rd).

Keys to Arkansas success

– Arkansas has enjoyed a slight surge in paint presence and playing with added physical force in its two most-recent games as Aidoo and Brazile have each stepped up, but it pales in comparison to what Goldin and Wolf have combined to do this season as both have been healthy. Getting Ivisic back would give the Hogs a unique 7-2 perimeter shooting and passing threat as well as the best shot-blocker on either squad, but it remains to be seen if he will be available. If he is, and if Aidoo and Brazile can continue to provide quality, productive minutes, the Razorbacks have a legitimate chance of neutralizing what has been a very good Michigan frontline. Thiero has played mostly at the 4-spot for the Hogs, which could make things interesting as an advantage depending on which of the Wolverines’ 7-footers tries to match up with him in man-to-man defense. We give the edge to the Wolverines’ frontline, but it may not be as big as the body of work so far suggests.

– The Razorbacks backcourt, as stated above, had its best game collectively against Miami, and they’ll need to have a similar effect against the Wolverines on Tuesday — collective efficient and volume scoring, solid defense while generating live-ball turnovers, and ball security. Fland just might thrive under the big and bright lights of playing at MSG in the city that recognized him as Mr. Basketball at the high school level at the conclusion of the ’23-24 campaign. And Davis, a preseason All SEC pick and on several national player of the year watchlists, could be primed for his breakout game. In his last four outings, he’s averaged 11.0 points while shooting a combined 11-of-20 from 3 (55.0%). Wagner did a great job of probing Miami’s defense for driving angles all the way to the cup, and he needs another smart and aggressive approach toward doing the same against Michigan. Unlike the Wolverines, though, Miami did not have a rim-protector.

– Not falling behind early would be a much-needed accomplishment and a first away from home as Arkansas trailed by double-digits early against Baylor, Illinois, and Miami in a collective 118 minutes and 13 seconds of playing from behind before finally taking a lead at the 1:47 mark of the second half in the 3-point win over the Hurricanes. The Razorbacks’ best pathway to success would seem to be running up the margins in the turnover, points-off-turnovers, and fastbreak scoring aspects of the game — something the season stats suggest they can do, but in these marquee matchups the Hogs’ own unforced errors have not done them any favors in that regard. Just like it did in the three previous games away from home, the Hogs need to stay competitive in the blue-collar rebounding and 50/50-ball battles. The Hogs lost the three-point shooting wars against both Baylor and Illinois (the latter was a staggering beatdown beyond the arc), but an 8-of-14 second-half shooting from distance at Miami was as key as anything to that comeback win. The key may be staying close, dare we say take a lead early, so that the Razorbacks are not dealing with the pressure of making three-pointers trying to cut into double-digit deficits.

– Free throws, again. Arkansas was the better team in terms of efficiency coming into the Illinois tilt, yet did not shoot well from the line in that game as the Illini were actually more efficient on freebies. This is a poor Michigan free throw shooting team, and this time the Hogs need to cash in with the idea being to maximize the margins in an area where they have been consistently better than their opponent. A lot depends on WHO takes the free throws, but after his dismal 12-of-21 performance against Illinois Thiero improved to 10-of-13 against UTSA. Fland and Davis are both north of 80% at the foul line but do not consistently generate much volume of FTAs, while Wagner is making only 2 out of every 3 free throws he attempts. A 75% night at the foul line on a decent volume might be good enough to win a close game, and conversely anything south of 70% might be the recipe for losing such a contest.

Razorbacks updates, rankings, and tidbits

– Arkansas is 3-4 all-time against Michigan, which includes a 76-68 win in the 1993-94 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight that sent the Hoop Hogs to the Final Four, which led to the UA men’s basketball program’s first and only national championship.

– Following their neutral-site non-conference game against Michigan, the Razorbacks will play another neutral-site non-conference game — although the NCAA NET algorithm will count it as a Hogs home game — against in-state Division 1 foe Central Arkansas at 3 p.m. CT on Saturday at Simmons Bank Arena in North Little Rock (SEC Network Plus livestream). The Hogs are 1-0 against in-state D1 foes so far this season counting their 79-67 home win over Little Rock in late November.

– The Razorbacks are No. 49 in the NCAA NET rankings that updated on Monday, Dec. 9, They are 0-2 in Quad-1 games, 0-0 in Q2, 3-0 in Q3, and 4-0 in Q4.

– Arkansas was unranked in the most-recent Associated Press Top 25 poll as well as the USA Today Coaches Top 25 poll (each was released on Monday, Dec. 9). The Hogs are No. 45 in KenPom.com’s analytics rankings (the latter includes aforementioned rankings of No. 75 in offensive efficiency rating and No. 19 in defensive efficiency rating).

– The Hoop Hogs were slotted as an 11-seed with a play-in game among the “Last Four In” (a.k.a. on the Bubble) by Joe Lunardi in his most-recent ESPN Bracketology update (Tuesday, Dec. 10) that predicts the entire NCAA Tournament 68-team field.

– Hogville is your one-stop shop for complete 2024-25 Arkansas Razorbacks men’s basketball coverage, and linked here is the team’s schedule including our thoughts on the top 20 tilts on the slate (this will be updated with game results and attached game articles as the season progresses: https://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=768616.0).