Hoop Hogs notebook: No. 16 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Kansas charity exhibition preview

By Kevin McPherson

LITTLE ROCK — It’s expected to be a packed house, students have been camping outside Bud Walton Arena as a lead-up, and Razorback nation as a whole is eagerly anticipating the first competitive matchup of the John Calipari era as Head Hog, but there are plenty of reasons to manage expectations for No. 16 Arkansas when the team hosts No. 1 Kansas in a charity exhibition game on its homecourt in Fayetteville.

The Hoop Hogs and Jayhawks will tip off at 8 p.m. CST on Friday (SEC Network).

Reason No. 1 to tamp down expectations: Each team has at least three players that have recently battled various nagging ailments (coaches have said their teams are “beat up,” but dare we say “injured”). Both head coaches — Hall of Famers Calipari and the Jayhawks’ Bill Self — have suggested some players will not be available when the two teams meet because of the vaguely defined issues. Top of the may not play list in both cases are Arkansas’ perceived best player in Johnell “Nelly” Davis and Kansas’ fifth-year star big man Hunter Dickinson.

Reason No. 2 to tamp down expectations: Both coaches had described the format as partly game with score being kept (so it’s true that there will be a final score declaring a winner), but also split into quarters to offer situational opportunities with practice elements and potential on-court instruction for coaches which feels a bit scripted. Calipari via a social media post on Thursday described the event as a “real” game. Additionally, Self said on Wednesday the four quarters as opposed to the traditional two halves will allow players to not foul out (we’re assuming that means players will be allowed to have more than the traditional five fouls that lead to disqualification). In a college athletics environment that rewards winning above all else with fans becoming more and more rabid in all-or-nothing, winner-take-all expectations, an exhibition game stressing segments of situational basketball should give fans permission to be okay with the team making mistakes and failing while learning from those dynamics as well as the positives that emerge from the competition. On the surface that sounds like an everyone-gets-a-trophy approach, but for an event that has been formatted as described above it makes sense to focus on experimenting, teaching, and learning to prepare for the real thing that is now less than two weeks away.

Reason No. 3 to tamp down expectations: Actually, this could stand as the top-ranked factor for why NOT to take things too seriously, and that’s because these exhibition games do NOT count toward the official won-loss record or NCAA NET rankings, nor do they have any other direct impact on a postseason resume.

Reason No. 4 to tamp down expectations: Win or lose, what does it really foretell? In Arkansas’ case, the last two seasons have proven that exhibition tilts — traditional 40-minute-game formats — against quality high-major Division 1 opponents have not been a harbinger of things to follow. Two year ago, the Hogs suffered a 30-point beatdown on the road against Texas in an October exhibition game, and that team started 9-1 with significant wins to move into Top 10 rankings before injuries led to a disappointing SEC record and finish, which then took a turn for the better in the postseason as those Razorbacks knocked off defending national champion and No. 1 seed Kansas to advance to the NCAAT Sweet Sixteen. And last season in October, a preseason-ranked Arkansas squad hosted Top 5-ranked Purdue and won an exciting game in overtime, but in the real-world of college games the Razorbacks tanked and had a losing season while the Boilermakers lived up to the preseason hype and advanced all the way to the NCAAT championship game in March.

Self and Calipari have a history of mega matchups going back to Kansas overcoming a late deficit to defeat Cal’s Memphis Tigers in the 2008 NCAAT championship game, and just last season Self’s Jayhawks nipped Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats, 89-84, in a mid-November non-conference game in Chicago.

This time, the competition will be tempered with both teams being cautious about how they use personnel while focusing more on teaching/learning/experimenting and less on the bottom line of winning.

“This Arkansas and Kansas game, this exhibition game, the proceeds of this, we’re donating to children’s hospital, which is a really big deal when you have two major programs coming together,” Arkansas associate head coach Kenny Payne said during a Thursday press conference at BWA to preview the matchup. “We’re donating all the proceeds to young people, really says a lot about both programs, both coaches. We’re very excited.  It’s the start of the season and when I look outside the door out the window right now, I see kids camping out and getting their campsites ready and and all of that. It lets you know that it’s basketball season and it’s an exciting time. They’re camping out now, and the game is tomorrow night at eight o’clock, so that says a lot.

“If I’m not mistaken, Kansas is the No. 1 team in the country. I think that the atmosphere, the type of team that you’re playing and it doesn’t count, even if we lose we’ll still be undefeated … But what is it shows our young guys, it shows some of our veterans, just how important it is that you be ready to play because you’re not just playing against a regular team that you’re supposed to beat. You’re playing against a team that’s one of the best in the country, and so our learning curve is going to have to be fast, and this accelerates that. We’ll know exactly what we need to do from here on out. We use this term, this statement a lot in the program, win to learn. Early in the season, that’s what it is. Win to learn.”

Three of the Hogs top six rotation players — senior guard Nelly Davis, senior big man Jonas Aidoo, and junior 3/4-combo forward Adou Thiero — did not go through the majority of the team’s two recent Tip Off Tour practices due to being “beat up” according Calipari, and Payne did not get into specifics on Thursday when asked about the availability of players.

“I don’t know exactly yet,” Payne said of which Hogs are in or out. “The medical staff will help us with that, but the guys are getting better every day. They’re getting better. But we have been down. We’ve had a few weeks of having five guys practice. So that’s tough.”

My takes on Arkansas starters / rotation

Obviously Davis, Aidoo, and Thiero project as starters (or two starters and a sixth man) when healthy. Not knowing who will or will not be available on Friday, or how limited the three or others might be, let’s look at this two ways …

If all nine top-rotation players are available, our assessment for a starting five goes Davis, Aidoo, sophomore guard DJ Wagner, freshman guard Boogie Fland, and fourth-year junior forward Trevon Brazile with Thiero slotted as the sixth man and Karter Knox, Bill Richmond, and Zvonimir Ivisic off the bench in key roles.

At full strength, that first-five lineup maximizes Arkansas’ perimeter firepower shooting the ball, and it’s a double-down on experience, size, and talent on the frontline. Wagner and Fland are versatile to play together for stretches of games, and Davis has a physicality and skill combo that will allow him to play the 1, 2, and 3.

If the three players that were held out of recent Tip Off Tour practice are unavailable, our assessment is the starting five should be Wagner, Fland, Knox, Brazile, and Ivisic.

Of course, there could be alternative scenarios where one or two of the players return, or someone else is unavailable, which would alter the projections laid out above.

Scouting the Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas opens ’24-25 as the top-ranked team in the initial Associated Press Top 25 poll, and the Jayhawks open at No. 6 in KenPom.com’s college basketball ratings.

It’s unclear if Dickinson (7-2, 265 pounds) will be available to play, or how limited he will be if he does play. Last season he had 27 points and 21 rebounds in that Kansas win over Kentucky in November, and he finished the season with averages of 17.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. He’s been one of the premier big men in college basketball spanning the past four seasons, the first three of which were spent at Michigan.

Also out of action in recent practices for Kansas are transfer guards Shakeel Moore and Rylan Griffen. Self said on Wednesday that he expected to have players back to practice by Sunday — two days after the exhibition game — but aside from Moore he did not specifically rule out any player from participating against Arkansas on Friday night.

Key veteran returnees are undersized forward KJ Adams (12.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 60.1% field goals) and Dajuan Harris, Jr. (8.5 points, 6.5 assists, 2.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 38.4% from 3). Both players were starters two seasons ago when Arkansas knocked off then-No.4-ranked / then-No. 1 seed / then-defending national champion Kansas to advance to the ’22-23 NCAAT Sweet Sixteen.

In addition to Moore and Griffen, Kansas has added key transfers in forward AJ Storr, guard Zeke Mayo, guard Noah Shelby, and guard David Coit. Five-star freshman forward Flory Bidunga and highly regarded freshman wing Rakease Passmore give Self to more capable newcomers.

Typically a powerhouse in the Big 12 Conference, and that goes for all of college basketball, Kansas was ranked No. 1 early last season before finishing uncharacteristically in a tie for fifth-place in the Big 12 (23-11 overall, 10-8 in league play).

Last season, Kansas went 7-deep in its top rotation as the team averaged 75.3 points, 35.8 rebounds, 18.8 assists, 7.3 steals, 3.9 blocks, and 11.6 turnovers per game while shooting 48.8% from the field, including 32.9% from 3, and 72.7% from the free throw line.

Keys to Arkansas success against Kansas

– As stated above, experimentation and being okay with mistakes and failing as part of evaluating the team’s strengths, weaknesses, and growth potential will outweigh the optics of winning or losing. So, success can be measured in smaller doses as the game progresses, and once the dust settles the film room will be key in what players can learn from and take with them to the second exhibition game a week later at TCU.

– If it’s all hands on deck, there’s a treasure trove of evaluation opportunities examining team chemistry; various lineups to exploit matchups or cover-up problem areas; defensive assignment integrity, rotations, and communication — ALL while promoting the kind of fast-paced, ball-sharing offense that Calipari envisions for the roster he’s assembled.

– If Arkansas is not at full strength, while this would not be ideal it would provide more reps for the younger players which is essentially the five of Wagner, Ivisic, Fland, Knox, and Richmond. This is not an equitable trade-off with seeing all nine working together over the course of four quarters, but there are positives if it comes down to a limited roster.

– More specifically on defense, Calipari has talked a lot about liking his team’s collective physicality — something his high-octane offensive Kentucky team lacked last season — but IF both Aidoo and Thiero are out it limits what the Razorbacks can do to test their ability to play a defensively physical brand of basketball. Still, success can be measured individually for those who will compete, so all will not be lost in gauging the contact-worthiness of some players.

– Leaving the court with no further injuries, ahem players “beat up,” moving forward.

Razorbacks updates, rankings, and tidbits

– Arkansas is 6-8 all-time against Kansas, and though Friday night’s result won’t change the record there has been a rich history when the two teams have met up on the basketball court. Most recently, Arkansas knocked off then-No. 4-ranked / then-NCAAT-No. 1-seed / then-defending-national-champion Kansas, 72-71, in a thrilling NCAAT Round of 32 matchup that sent the Razorbacks to the ’22-23 Sweet 16. Arkansas has won 4 of the last 6 matchups between the two programs, but the Jayhawks won the biggest game ever between the two schools — 93-81 in the ’90-91 NCAAT Elite Eight that sent Kansas to the Final Four and eventually to the national title game where it lost to Duke.

– The Hoop Hogs are 1-1 in charity exhibition games against high-major opponents. The Hogs knocked off Purdue, 81-77, in overtime in October 2023, and in they lost at Texas, 90-60, in October 2022.

– Following their home charity exhibition game against Kansas, the Razorbacks will hit the road to face TCU in another charity exhibition game (7 p.m. CT, Friday, Nov. 1, no television or livestream).

– Arkansas is No. 16 in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll and No. 25 in KenPom.com’s initial analystics rankings.

– The Hoop Hogs were slotted as a 6-seed by Joe Lunardi in his most-recent ESPN Bracketology update (Tuesday, Oct. 22) that predicts the entire NCAA Tournament 68-team field.

– Hogville is your one-stop shop for complete 2024-25 Arkansas Razorbacks men’s basketball coverage, and linked here is the team’s schedule including our thoughts on the top 20 tilts on the slate (this will be updated with game results with attached game articles as the season progresses): https://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=768616.0