Hoop Hogs notebook: No. 20 Arkansas vs. Little Rock preview; Trojans scout; UA keys to success; polls, analytics, & more

By Kevin McPherson

LITTLE ROCK — There’s more early-season symmetry between in-state Division 1 foes Arkansas and Little Rock than initially meets the eye as the two men’s basketball programs converge on Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville for a weekend non-conference tussle, so we did a deep dive on the matchup that marks the first of two Hoop Hog games this season against in-state D1 programs.

The 20th-ranked Razorbacks (3-1, No. 31 in KenPom.com’s Division 1 rankings) will host the unranked Trojans (3-2, No. 181 in KenPom.com’s Division 1 rankings) at 8 p.m. CT on Friday at BWA (SEC Network).

As for the symmetry …

– Each team’s best player to this point — Arkansas junior forward Adou Thiero (transfer from Kentucky) and Little Rock wing Mwani Wilkinson (transfer from LSU) — performed under-the-radar in the SEC last season only to enjoy wild success so far in ’24-25 with new roles and new zip codes.

– If you buy stock in stocks – that’s steals plus blocks – it’s a bull market between the Hogs and Trojans as both teams are among the nation’s leaders in that combined hustle category. Arkansas is averaging 16.8 stocks (10.3 steals and 6.3 blocks) while Little Rock is averaging 15.2 stocks per game (9.2 steals and 6.0 blocks).

– Each team comes into the matchup RED HOT shooting from three! Little Rock is knocking down 41.1% of its shots from distance (ranks 31st in D1) on respectable volume (7.8 makes and 19.0 takes per outing). Meanwhile Arkansas — after being near the bottom of D1 in three-point shooting through its first two games — has caught fire from distance by hitting 17 of it’s last 33 three-point attempts (51.5%) spanning its last three halves of basketball (second half of a 16-point win over Troy followed by the entire game in the aforementioned 19-point win over Pacific), which has allowed the Hogs to rank slightly better than middle of the pack (175th out of 364 D1 teams) in three-point field goal efficiency (33.7%). It’s still too small of a sample size to suggest either team will sustain the recent three-ball successes.

– Each team is scoring in the low-70’s on average, and each team is holding its opponents below 70 points per game. Each team is forcing 17 turnovers per game (Little Rock 17.2 and Arkansas 17.0, to be exact) as each ranks in the top 35 in D1 in forcing turnovers. Again, small sample sizes to this point of the season.

– Each team is led by a former NBA head coach (John Calipari / New Jersey Nets and Darrell Walker / Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards).

– Each team will play 25th-ranked Illinois next week, which raises questions for both teams when they meet on Friday. Trap game for Arkansas, which can’t afford to look ahead to their Turkey Throwdown matchup with the Illini? Is Little Rock road-weary, dangerous, or both as they’ll be facing two ranked teams in a span of three days (the Trojans-Illini tilt is on Monday, Nov. 22)?

– Each team was either picked to win (Little Rock in the Ohio Valley Conference) or to finish near the top (Arkansas in the SEC) of their respective conferences in the preseason, and both received votes in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll (Arkansas, of course, received enough votes for a No. 16 ranking to begin the season). Each team has been included in every single Bracketology — that’s way-too-early preseason, normal preseason, and during each of the first three weeks of the regular season — published by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi forecasting the 68 teams that will either automatically qualify for or receive at-large bids to the postseason NCAA Tournament.

– Each team began its 2024-25 campaign with massively unfortunate roster attrition circumstances directly related to injuries to returning all conference performers from last season: Big man Jonas Aidoo of Arkansas was both All SEC second team AND SEC All Defensive team a season ago before transferring from Tennessee, and Trojans point guard and former Hog Khalen “KK” Robinson was All OVC first team last season after leading the Trojans to the league regular-season championship. Both players were named to preseason all league teams recently, with Robinson being tabbed as his league’s preseason player of the year. Aidoo (undisclosed lower leg injury) played a combined total of 20 low-production, low-impact minutes in Arkansas’ first three games before sitting out the team’s 91-72 home win over Pacific on Monday, and Robinson (knee and more) has not suited up once this season and will not play again until next season after significant injuries sustained in practice in October.

– Each team lost its second game of the season despite all the lofty preseason projections, and at the heart of these early troubles for both teams are the aforementioned all-league injuries plus other players who have either missed games or whose play has been significantly impacted by injuries. Arkansas junior forward Trevon Brazile (ankle) played only nine minutes two games ago before sitting out the win over Pacific, and the team’s projected all-everything senior guard Nelly Davis has fallen short of production expectations in part due to a wrist injury that kept him out of three weeks of practice leading up to the exhibition season in late October. On the other side for Little Rock, Robinson’s presumptive backup at point guard — Jordan Jefferson — has been dealing with ailments while missing a game and playing sparingly in another spanning the Trojans’ last two outings.

– Whatever the issues at hand feeding into those early losses, each team is on a mini-roll as each comes into Friday’s clash on a two-game winning streak. Arkansas has held serve at home winning the first two tilts of a four-game homestand against unranked mid-major opponents while Little Rock is in the middle of a six-game road swing that now includes back-to-back road wins (more on those specifics down the page in our Trojans scouting report).

“I’m not sure about that,” Arkansas associate head coach Chin Coleman answered during a zoom press conference on Thursday when he was asked if Aidoo and Brazile would be cleared to play against Little Rock. “We haven’t gotten an update for today. I think that’s up to our medical staff. Matt (Townsend) and those guys are doing a good job monitoring that. I know the kids are chomping at the bit to get back on the basketball court and working really hard, going to their PT (physical therapy) meetings around the clock, treatment and therapy with Matt. In terms of a status report, I don’t have that right now at this moment.”

Scouting the Little Rock Trojans

Former Arkansas star guard and current Trojans head coach Darrell Walker — he’s Razorbacks Royalty — is in his seventh season leading Little Rock, which has won two conference titles under his watch (’19-20 in the Sun Belt Conference and ’23-24 in the OVC). He and the school recently agree to a three-year extension on his contract.

The Trojans are now two-thirds through their brutal six-game road swing after opening the season with a 20-point home win over Arkansas Baptist College. It started with back-to-back double-digit-margin losses at Winthrop (82-67) and at Arkansas State (80-63), but Little Rock has bounced back with double-digit-margin wins at Texas-San Antonio (81-64) and most recently at Tulsa (71-57 on Wednesday) of the highly regarded American Athletic Conference. The Golden Hurricanes came into that matchup favored to win by double digits on their home court.

Wilkinson, the 6-5 transfer wing who spent four seasons at LSU before coming to Little Rock in the offseason, leads the team in three categories — scoring (17.0 points per game), rebounding (6.6 boards per game), and steals (2.6) — while shooting 55.4% from the field, including 11-of-22 from 3 for 50.0%, and 12-of-15 free throws for 80.0%.

Junior 6-7 combo guard Johnathan Lawson, an offseason transfer who spent his first college campaign at Memphis before moving on to Creighton last season, is averaging 16.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, a team-leading 3.8 assists, 1,4 steals, 1.0 block, and 2.4 turnovers while shooting 46.0% from the field, including 14-of-31 from 3 for 45.2%, and 11-of-14 free throws for 78.6%.

That big, veteran backcourt duo combined for 39 points, 16 rebounds, and 7 assists in the Trojans’ 14-point win at Tulsa on Wednesday.

With Robinson out and Jefferson limited, the lead guard duties have fallen to 6-3 sophomore Isaiah Lewis of Los Angeles, who is averaging 11.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 3.0 turnovers while shooting 37.0 from the field, but that includes a solid 7-of-18 from 3 for 38.9%. He’s made 15-of-17 free throws for 88.9%. Jefferson did not play in the team’s win over UTSA but returned against Tulsa, logging one rebound in nine minutes.

On the frontline, Little Rock has 6-8 sophomore Ante Beljan of Croatia (10.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.4 turnovers, 61.8% field goals); former Florida Gator in senior 6-9 forward Tuongthach Gatkek (6.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blocks, 2.o turnovers, 52.2% field goals); and hometown-grown 6-8 sophomore forward Creed Williamson (3.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 35.3% field goals).

The Trojans go nine deep in their top player rotation, but only seven of those average double-digits in minutes played per game. Little Rock averages 73.2 points per contest, 33.8 rebounds (including 10.2 offensive boards per outing), 14.2 assists, 9.2 steals, and 6.0 blocks.

The Trojans have had major issues taking care of the basketball (14.6 turnovers ranks 302nd in D1) as well as fouling (20.2 fouls per game ranks 313th in D1) that has led to opponents shooting a whopping 28.6 free throws per outing (ranks 355th in D1). Additionally, Little Rock is shooting only 47.2% on two-point field goals (ranks 306th in D1).

“I like what they run,” Coleman said of the Trojans. “I like their style of play. They’re No. 1 in the country in what we call the (NBA Hall of Famer Hakeem) Olajuwon stat. That’s blocks and steals combined. They average 10 steals a game, they cause 17 turnovers a game. They’re helter-skelter, right? They mess up defenses, they change the rhythm of the game and keep you off guard. They scatter the court a little bit, and they cause havoc. That works good in their favor.

“They run really good stuff on offense. They run some Princeton stuff. They have good pieces, good personnel. I like their team. I like their team a lot. We respect them. We don’t fear them, but there’s a lot of respect for what they do and who they are and how they’re playing and winning basketball games.”

Keys to Arkansas success

Arkansas’ team strengths — forcing live-ball turnovers, winning in transition, pressuring the rim with paint touches on drives and downhill slashes in halfcourt offense — offers a perfect cocktail for attacking and exposing Little Rock’s weaknesses, which are consistent point guard play / turnover issues and a propensity to foul and send teams to the free throw line. Conversely, the Hogs’ team weaknesses also play into the strengths of the Trojans, specifically the Hogs’ propensity to suffer unforced turnovers going up against a team that is good at forcing them. And with Aidoo and/or Brazile possibly still out, it’s an Arkansas team short on depth but more importantly outside of Thiero its a team that is short on paint physicality, which could be a factor as Little Rock looks to attack the offensive glass while competing in points-in-the-paint.

If the Hogs AT MINIMUM continue to win in points-off-turnovers and in transition scoring combined with shooting 20-plus free throws while holding their own in the physicality department, it’s major advantage to Arkansas playing at home. Aside from Wilkinson, the Trojans’ next four primary ballhandlers in their offense — Lewis, Lawson, Beljan, and Gatkek — each averages between 3.0 and 2.0 turnovers per game, and we think this may be the key to the Razorbacks stepping on the pedal in getting up and down the court, which again is the strength of the team. Pushing up on and getting into the Trojans in point-of-attack scenarios could open the flood gates for the Hogs’ defense.

As to the aforementioned recent three-point shooting success for the Trojans, Arkansas will need to do a much better job than it did against Pacific on Monday when the Tigers made 11 of their first 23 attempts while trailing by only five points nearly midway through the second half. Defense has been the overall strength of this Arkansas team so far — including three-point field goal defense as teams are making less than 30% of their shots from distance. Much of the Hogs’ success scoring has come off their defense, similar to how a boxer uses counter-punches off a strong defensive scheme.

On the offensive side of things, it’s not just 7-2 sophomore center Zvonimir Ivisic (12.0 points including 9-of-14 shooting from distance for 64.3% on the season) who is fueling the three-point shooting flame, although he is the catalyst. Freshman guard Boogie Fland (16.5 points including 8-of-20 shooting from 3 for 40.0% on the season); junior 3/4-combo forward Adou Thiero (18.5 points including 4-of-11 from 3 for 36.4% on the season); senior guard Nelly Davis (9.5 points including 3-of-7 shooting from 3 for 42.9% in his last two outings after making only 1-of-9 in his first two contests); and sophomore guard DJ Wagner (7.3 points including 2-of-4 shooting from 3 in his last outing after going a collective 0-of-6 in the team’s first three games) have all turned around their three-point shooting fortunes after a highly inefficient preseason followed by various stinkers from distance in games against Lipscomb and Baylor.

It may not be necessary to defeat Little Rock, but a repeat performance collectively from the team shooting well from 3 would obviously help Arkansas on offense while the defense dials in on limiting Little Rock’s volume of makes and/or its efficiency from distance.

If both Aidoo and Brazile as still out, it forces Arkansas into a shallow 7-deep player rotation and longer stretches of playing small-ball schemes on both ends of the floor with Thiero heading up the 5-spot. However that shakes out, the Hogs cannot afford foul trouble or minor nicks and bruises that limit the availability of the remaining seven players, which actually affected three Hogs in their last game against Pacific.

Whatever role or roles Thiero will be challenged to handle on Friday, so far he has been up to the task. In addition to his team-leading 18.5 points per game, Thiero is averaging team bests in rebounds at 5.8 and steals at 2.3 while shooting a team-leading 65.2% overall from the field.

“Nothing he’s doing is surprising to us,” Coleman said. “We are fully aware of his skill set and how he can impact the basketball game. He, in my opinion, could be one of the most impactful players in college basketball because of what he does on both sides of the ball, what he does defensively, him being hard to guard on the offensive side.

“Adou is a point guard. He obviously grew to be 6-7, 6-8 and this physique that he has, but he was a point guard, so he’s got good ball skills, got good deck game, so he can drive the ball. He’s arguably one of the most athletic kids in basketball right now, in college basketball. So he’s not doing anything, for us, that’s shocking. What we’re concerned about, which has been an issue for him as I said before, is him being consistent. Can he keep up this pace? Can he continue to be healthy and can he continue to play at this level? If he can do that, then we’ll have a really good team and he’ll have a great year.”

Fland leads the team with 5.0 assists and his 2.3 steals per outing matches the team-best output of Thiero. Davis is contributing 5.0 rebounds per game and may be thawing out on offense. Ivisic is leading the team in blocks at 3.0 to go with 1.3. although his 3.8 rebounds fall well short of where the Hogs’ coaching staff would like him to be on the glass while his 3.3 turnovers are equally concerning.

“He’s got to be better, and we’re not going to stand for or accept mediocrity from him,” Coleman said of Big Z. “He’s got to be better. As you remember, I talked about him being consistent. You’ve got to be an everyday guy. His care factor has got to be at a high level. He’s got to play like he cares and how important possessions are to him. Because when we play, majority of our games are going to be decided by two to three possessions a game. You can’t have seven turnovers.

“So, he has to value the basketball. He has to do a lot of things that we need him to do for us from a persistent basis, and we’re still trying to get that out of him. That’s going to be ongoing. I don’t think that he’ll ever reach the destination where we’re like, ‘Okay, so he’s at that point where we…’ We’re going to always want more. I don’t know about you. There’s guys that are the cup is half empty or the cup is half full. I don’t know what you are. I know what I am. I’m always looking to fill it. I’m always looking to fill it. So, I’m one of those guys who’s always looking to fill the cup. So that’s who I am, and that’s why I’m going to always continue to be on Z.”

Razorbacks updates, rankings, and tidbits

– Arkansas is 1-0 all-time against Little Rock. The lone matchup was a 93-78 Hogs home win in early December 2021 during the ’21-22 season. Arkansas also defeated Little Rock in an exhibition game in October 2019 on the same day that the court — Nolan Richardson Court — was dedicated in the name of the Naismith Hall of Fame coach who led the program to its only national championship in basketball in ’93-94.

– Following their Friday night tilt against Little Rock, the Razorbacks will be back at home at BWA to face Maryland-Eastern Shore (7 p.m. CT, Monday, Nov. 25, SEC Network Plus livestream) in their final home game in the month of November.

– Arkansas is ranked No. 20 in the most-recent Associated Press Top 25 poll, No. 24 in the most-recent USA Today’s Coaches Top 25 poll, and No. 33 in KenPom.com’s analytics rankings (the latter includes rankings of No. 63 in offensive efficiency rating and No. 9 in defensive efficiency rating).

– The Hoop Hogs were slotted as a 6-seed by Joe Lunardi in his most-recent ESPN Bracketology update (Tuesday, Nov. 19) that predicts the entire NCAA Tournament 68-team field.

– Hogville is your one-stop shop for complete 2024-25 Arkansas Razorbacks men’s basketball coverage, and linked here is the team’s schedule including our thoughts on the top 20 tilts on the slate (this will be updated with game results and attached game articles as the season progresses: https://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=768616.0).