Hoop Hogs notebook: Preview No. 19 Arkansas vs. Illinois, including Illini scout, keys to UA success, polls, analytics, more

By Kevin McPherson

LITTLE ROCK — With the NCAA NET rankings set to be released next week, No. 19 Arkansas and Illinois are both expected to debut ranked somewhere in the NET Top 50, which means on Thanksgiving Day both teams will be seeking what will likely be their first Quad-1 win of the season when they clash in the Turkey Throwdown at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo.

The Razorbacks (5-1) and the Illini (5-1) each have what will count as a Q1 loss — Arkansas fell 72-67 to then-No. 8 Baylor at a neutral site on Nov. 9, and Illinois lost 100-87 on the road against then-No. 8 Alabama on Nov. 20. So the next opportunity for each team to add its first Q1 win to the resume is when they square off on Thursday (3 p.m. CT, CBS).

The made-for-television matchup during college basketball’s Feast Week will be the culmination of a four-team MTE (multi-team event) that included Little Rock and Maryland-Eastern Shore, two opponents that both Arkansas and Illinois defeated in four total home games that began on Friday. MDES is set to play at Little Rock on Wednesday with the Hogs-Illini tilt on Thursday serving as the finale of the MTE.

Both Arkansas and Illinois throttled MDES — the Razorbacks won 109-35 while the Illini won 87-40. But Little Rock was a different story as Arkansas built a 22-point first-half lead before staving off several Trojans runs for a relatively close-call 79-67 win, while Illinois blew the doors off in a 92-34 victory over the Trojans.

Arkansas and Illinois come into their matchup with defense being the calling cards for both teams, with the Razorbacks ranking 7th in Division 1 and the Illini ranking 17th in D1 (more on Illinois down the page in the Illini scouting report), according to KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings.

In the case of Arkansas, the Hogs are limiting opponents to 59.2 points per game (ranks 14th in D1), 37.0% from the field (ranks 28th in D1), 26.8% from 3 (ranks 35th in D1), and 44.9% on two-point field goals (ranks 73rd in D1) while collecting 11.0 steals per game (ranks 14th in D1) as part of forcing 17.7 turnovers per outing (ranks 14th in D1). Arkansas is also blocking 5.7 shots per game (ranks 24th in D1).

Offensively, there are more questions than answers for Arkansas, which ranks 82nd in D1 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Razorbacks average 14.8 assists per game compared to 12.5 turnovers — not an ideal ratio — and even that number is skewed by the MDES outlier result that saw the Hogs finish with 23 assists and only 4 turnovers. The Razorbacks are averaging only 7.8 offensive rebounds per game, ranking 343rd in D1. The Hogs are shooting only 17.8 free throws per game (ranks 258th in D1). The positives on offense are fastbreak scoring (18.8 points per game ranks 16th in D1), overall field goal percentage (50.3% ranks 32nd in D1), and two-point shooting percentage (60.1% ranks 25th in D1). The Hogs have improved in recent games shooting from three (a deep dive on those numbers is available down the page under the Razorbacks updates, rankings, and tidbits section).

Junior 3/4-combo forward Adou Thiero and freshman lead guard Boogie Fland have been consistently good for the Hogs. Thiero leads the team with 18.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.2 steals per game to go with 1.8 assists per outing while shooting 65.1% from the field and 73.3% from the free throw line. Fland is second on the team in scoring at 17.2 points per game and first in assists at 5.5 (against 1.8 turnovers per contest) to go with 3.3 rebounds and 2.2 steals while shooting 48.5% from the field, including an elite 48.1% clip from 3, and 83.9% from the free throw line.

Sophomore 7-2 center Zvonimir Ivisic has had to pick up the slack on the frontline with returning / preseason All SEC pick Jonas Aidoo (undisclosed injury) logging only 20 total minutes in the first three games before sitting out the last three, and Ivisic has been mostly good with some mixed results. He’s third on the team in scoring at 12.0 points per game (includes a blistering-hot 61.5% overall shooting from the field and 56.5% from 3) and he’s first in blocks at 2.8, but he’s averaging only 4.0 rebounds in 23.2 minutes while sporting a team-worst 2.7 turnovers per outing.

Senior guard and preseason All SEC pick Nelly Davis is off to a slow start through six games, but he did notch his season-high of 16 points against MDES on Monday. He’s averaging 9.3 points, 4.7 rebounds (second on the team), 1.5 assists, and 1.7 turnovers while shooting 43.8% overall from the field, including 30.8% from 3, and 6-of-6 at the free throw line. Sophomore guard DJ Wagner leads the team in minutes per game at 34.2 as he’s averaging 8.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.8 turnovers while shooting 41.2% from the field, including 34.6% from 3, and 3-of-4 from the free throw line for 75.0%.

Junior forward Trevon Brazile (ankle) returned from a two-game absence to log 2 points, 2 rebounds, and 1 assist in 12 minutes against MDES as he is averaging 4.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in 16.3 minutes while shooting 57.1% from the field in his four games.

Freshmen wings Karter Knox and Billy Richmond have both played off the bench in all six games. Richmond (6.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.0 assist in 17.7 minutes while shooting 68.0% from the field and 62.6% from the free throw line) has been the more productive and efficient of the two with a bigger impact on defense and in transition so far. But Knox possibly had his breakout game against MDS, notching a career- and game-high 21 points (8-of-14 field goals, including 3-of-8 from 3, and 2-of-2 free throws) to go with a season-high 6 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block in 24 minutes. On the season, Knox is averaging 5.7 points and 3.5 rebounds in 17.0 minutes while shooting 30.8% overall from the field, including 17.4% from 3, and 6-of-8 for 75.0% from the free throw line).

Scouting the Illinois Illini

Long-tenured Illinois head coach Brad Underwood had a lot of firepower to replace after last season’s NCAAT Elite Eight run, and so far so good as his current Illini team started 3-0 out of the gates to earn an Associate Press poll ranking of No. 25 before the aforementioned loss to Alabama knocked the team out of the updated rankings that were released earlier this week. The Illini check in at No. 21 in the most-recent update of KenPom.com’s team rankings for Division 1.

In addition to dismantling both Little Rock and Maryland-Eastern Shore at home by a combined winning margin of 105 points since Friday, Illinois has early-season home wins over Eastern Illinois (112-67), Southern Illinois-Edwardsville (90-58], and Oakland (66-54).

Freshman 6-8 sharpshooting wing Will Riley — a 5-star recruit pursued by John Calipari and Arkansas who re-classified from 2025 to 2024 in time to join Illinois in the spring — leads the team with 17.2 points per game to go with 5.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 24.7 minutes off the bench while shooting 50.7% from the field, including 17-of-31 from 3 for 54.8%, and 69.2% from the free throw line.

Sophomore 7-1 big man Tomislav Ivisic — the twin brother of Arkansas’ Zvonimir Ivisic — is in his first season at Illinois and is averaging 15.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 assists in 25.8 minutes per game while shooting 58.1% from the field, including 7-of-25 from 3 for 28.0%, and 70% from the free throw line.

Comparing the twins, Tomislav is the stronger paint presence and a better rebounder while Zvonimir is a better shooter from distance and a better rim-protector in terms of blocking shots.

Lithuanian 6-6 freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis is averaging 12.0 points, 6.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and 3.3 turnovers while shooting 48.7% from the field, including 7-of-20 from 3 for 35.0%, and 87.1% from the free throw line.

Evansville transfer and senior 6-9 forward Ben Humrichous is averaging 10.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.2 blocks while shooting 42.9% from the field, including 15-of-28 from 3 for 39.5%, and 62.5% from the free throw line. Arizona transfer and 6-2 junior guard Kylan Boswell is averaging 8.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.3 turnovers in 27.2 minutes while shooting 34.1% from the field, including 6-of-27 from 3 for 22.2%, and 57.1% from the free throw line. Louisville transfer and 6-7 junior wing Trey White is averaging 8.8 points and 6.0 rebounds in 19.0 minutes while shooting 46.2% from the field, including 30.8% from 3, and 92.9% from the free throw line.

Illinois goes nine deep in its top player rotation with eight of those averaging between 13.8 and 29.3 minutes per game.

The Illini rank 32nd nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings as the team is averaging 89.0 points (ranks 13th in D1), 15.3 assists to 11.0 turnovers, and 15.7 offensive rebounds per game (ranks 11th in D1). In fact, Illinois is the best rebounding team in the nation so far — a whopping 50.2 boards per game ranks 1st, including 34.5 defensive rebounds to rank 2nd nationally. Shooting-wise, the Illini are mediocre from the field (44.8% ranks 195th in D1), including 33.0% from 3 (ranks 197th), although they take a much higher volume of shots from distance than most teams (11.3 makes per game ranks 9th in D1, and 34.3 attempts per outing ranks 4th in D1). With all the blue collar work on the glass and in the paint, Illinois is shooting 26.5 free throws per game (ranks 30th in D1) while making 70.4% of those (ranks 194th). The Illini are efficient shooting from inside the arc (57.7% on two-point field goals ranks 72nd in D1).

Defensively, Illinois is even better, holding teams to 58.8 points per game (ranks 13th in D1), 34.4% overall shooting from the field (ranks 4th in D1), 38.8% on two-point field goals (ranks 2nd in D1), 5.5 three-point makes per game (ranks 28th in D1), and 25.6% on three-point field goals (ranks 15th in D1). Illinois is averaging 5.8 blocks per game (ranks 20th in D1).

But unlike Arkansas, the Illini do not generate a lot of steals (6.5 per game ranks 253rd in D1) or turnovers (11.8 per outing ranks bottom one-third of D1).

Compared to its opponents, Illinois is plus-30.2 points in per game scoring and plus-17.4 in overall rebounds per contest.

“I can’t wait for the game,” Arkansas’ Zvonimir Ivisic said during a zoom press conference on Wednesday to preview the matchup between he and his twin brother Tomislav. “… I’ve never played against my brother … in real life. “We always played against each other, 1-on-1 (as kids) … I was beating his ass every time.”

Keys to Arkansas success

– Physicality, paint presence, and rebouding are all calling cards for Illinois and not so much for Arkansas (Aidoo is the obvious missing link for the Hogs in this equation), so it will be important if Aidoo is unavailable again for Big Z, Brazile, Thiero, and the Hogs guards by committee to collectively have their best game of the season in those blue collar aspects of the game. That in combination with a big night getting steals (a.k.a. live-ball turnovers) and forcing turnovers in general to win the fastbreak scoring while limiting their own unforced turnovers to win points-off-turnovers will be critical. Both teams do a good job of contesting shots, but Illinois is the better team at closing out defensive possessions with rebounds as well as extending offensive possessions with offensive boards, so the Hogs must compete on the glass while being the better team in turnovers.

– The Razorbacks backcourt has not had a all-hands-performing-at-a-high-level-on-the-same-night kind of game yet — at least not against a team that has a pulse (a.k.a. MDES does not count) — but the pieces are there fur such a breakout game. Fland has been steady, reliable, and all-league worthy on levels similar to Razorbacks Royalty Lee Mayberry’s freshman season in 1988-89. Davis and Wagner have shown some progress of late, but Arkansas needs more from both to win this game. Richmond at the wing spot has been a spark just about every night out, and his role has been just big enough that if Fland, Davis, and Wagner are clicking with him being a wildcard in transition, slashing to the basket, and on defense, the Hogs improve their chances of securing victory.

– Free throw shooting. In concert with minimizing mistakes, teams that simply do better at the free throw line in matchups that are otherwise even often determine the outcome. The Hogs are shooting nearly nine fewer freebies per game than the Illini, but at a more efficient clip (the Hogs make 75.7% at the foul line compared to the Illini’s 70.4%) plus Arkansas does not foul a lot (only 14.2 per game ranks 28th in D1, and opponents are shooting only 12.8 foul shots per game which ranks 12th in D1), so if the Hogs can shrink the margin in FTAs while maintaining their efficiency advantage, it could be the difference in what we believe will be a close game.

Razorbacks updates, rankings, and tidbits

– After a rough start to the season shooting from three-point range, Arkansas has made strides and through six games ranks just outside the top one-third of Division 1 in three-point shooting efficiency — 35.5% checks in at 130th in D1. Ivisic leads the way with a 56.5% efficiency mark at 13-of-23 shooting from distance, and he’s followed by Fland (13-of-27 for 48.1%); Wagner (8-of-23 for 34.8%, but spanning the last three games Wagner has made 8-of-17 for 47.1%); and Davis (8-of-26 for 30.8%, but spanning the last four outings Davis has made 7-of-17 for 41.2%). Thiero is shooting only 28.6% beyond the arc but it’s on low volume (4-of-14), while Knox has mostly struggled shooting from three on a higher volume (4-of-23 for 17.4%, although he did warm up to hit 3-of-8 for 37.5% in the Hogs’ most-recent outing).

– Arkansas is 1-5 all-time against Illinois. The Hogs’ lone victory was an important one, though, coming in the teams’ most recent matchup in the first round of the ’22-23 NCAA Tournament, a 73-63 Arkansas triumph that set up the Hogs’ epic 72-71 Round of 32 upset win over then-No. 1 seed and then-defending national champion Kansas to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Four of the Illini’s wins in the series came in the early 2000s, and the first meeting ever between the two schools was played in December of 1949.

– Following their Thanksgiving Day tilt against Illinois, the Razorbacks will play their first true road game of the season at Miami (6 p.m. CT, Tuesday, Dec. 3, ESPN2) in the first-ever ACC/SEC Challenge.

– Arkansas is ranked No. 19 in the most-recent Associated Press Top 25 poll, No. 21 in the most-recent USA Today’s Coaches Top 25 poll, and No. 37 in KenPom.com’s analytics rankings (the latter includes aforementioned rankings of No. 82 in offensive efficiency rating and No. 7 in defensive efficiency rating).

– The Hoop Hogs were slotted as a 6-seed by Joe Lunardi in his most-recent ESPN Bracketology update (Tuesday, Nov. 26) that predicts the entire NCAA Tournament 68-team field. It was the same seeding projection that Lunardi had for the team in his previous Bracketology update from the previous week.

– Hogville is your one-stop shop for complete 2024-25 Arkansas Razorbacks men’s basketball coverage, and linked here is the team’s schedule including our thoughts on the top 20 tilts on the slate (this will be updated with game results and attached game articles as the season progresses: https://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=768616.0).