SEC Bowl predictions for this week

By Jason Pattyson

FAYETTEVILLE — It’s that time of year again when we are all trying to strategically plan holiday shopping and carve out time to watch bowl games around work at the end of the year. It is nice because, at any point, we can turn on a host of channels on our TV or smartphone and find a game on at any odd time of the day over the next two weeks. 

 The CFP is finally upon us, and the campus games give the host schools a chance to show they are ready to usher in a new dawn of college football. So, let’s get into it. 

Gasparilla Bowl 

Friday, December 20th 2:30 p.m. ESPN2

Tulane (9-4)  vs. Florida (7-5) -10

Some say this could be the unofficial first round of launching the DJ Lagway Heisman campaign. Billy Napier got a vote of confidence after guiding the Gators to an improbable bowl berth. The team was left for dead, and now they are trending up. The Green Wave (an original member of the SEC) is coming off two bowl appearances in 2023: a January 2023 Cotton Bowl win over USC and a December 2023 Military Bowl loss to Virginia Tech. 

After Graham Mertz got hurt, he tore his ACL during an overtime loss to Tennessee back in October. Since then, it’s been Lagway the rest of the way. He has passed for 1610 yards in five games this season with 11 touchdowns and five INT’s. His counterpart, true freshman Darian Mensah, has lit the AAC on fire. He’s thrown for over 300 yards three times this season with 23 total touchdowns, 22 passing, and one rushing, throwing five interceptions. 

This has young star power written all over it, but the turnovers could be a problem, and this one could get a little ugly in terms of playing a clean game. Tulane is 14th best in scoring margin at +14.5 ppg, so the Green Wave is used to playing ahead. If they get down early to the Gators, it could be an easy night for the SEC upstart tomorrow. 

Tulane – 23

Florida – 38

College Football Playoff First Round On-Campus gamesGames on December 21st. 

No.5 Texas (11-2) -12 vs. No.12 Clemson (10-3) 3:30 p.m.TNT

Clemson finds itself in some familiar back in the playoffs, but this time, they truly are the underdog. Texas hosts the Tigers in the team’s first-ever matchup. And for the first time, possibly ever, fans will need to bundle up for this one. Texas football in the cold just sounds almost crazy.

The craze will be about the Texas quarterback who is not named Arch. Texas’s Quin Ewers, from Southlake Carol, and Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, from Austin Westlake, are setting the state a-buzz. The last time these two faced each other was for the 2021 Texas 6A state championship, and Klubnik managed to play a cleaner game than Ewers for his first of two titles. For Klubnik, from Austin, this marks his first game back in his hometown since 2021.

Clemson had a hard road to get back to the CFP after all but being declared out of the running after the 34-3 beating Georgia gave them in the kickoff classic, the first game of the season. Losses to Louisville and an end-of-season surging South Carolina all but seemed impossible if it hadn’t been for that ACC Championship game win against SMU. 

The stats point to a defensive showdown. The Longhorns led the SEC and were among the top five in scoring defense this season, allowing 12.5 PPG. The Tigers are 39th in the nation, allowing just over 23 PPG, but Ewers hasn’t lit the world on fire with timely sacks and turnovers. 

The most underrated piece of this game is the chess match on the sidelines between Dabo Swinney and Steve Sarkisian. Experience versus the first-timer as a head coach. Execution will be a key factor, and the turnovers will be amplified, but the real show is which coach can outfox the other to victory. 

Clemson – 17

Texas – 21

No.8 Ohio St.(10-2) -7.5 vs. No.9 Tennessee (10-2)  7:00 p.m.ABC/ESPN

This is some uncharted territory. Fans and media alike get to experience a first together: a home playoff game in college football. The elements in December are different than in October. These young athletes are ready for a new era, and campuses have wrapped up the fall semester. This gives young adults a chance to stay on campus or travel back for the games. 

Tennessee has been a blunder moving the ball inside the red zone on the road. They average 6.2 trips per game inside the 20, but on the road, they crack the red zone 3.2. If Ohio St. can play ball control, they have a shot, but the Vols are hard to get off the field on third down. They converted eight third downs a game on the road, led behind Dylan Sampson, the SEC’s top rusher in all categories with 256 yards, 1485 yards, and 22 TDs. 

We all have felt the rumblings of a recession, and so has Quinshon Judkins. After winning the SEC rushing title at Ole Miss, his production in every category has declined over the last two years. Judkins will be facing the eighth stingiest rush defense in the nation, and his production decline could be a problem if the Vols choose to dial in on forcing the ball out of Will Howard’s hands. 

This game could come down to quarterback play. Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava didn’t set the world on fire in the non-conference, but he was efficient and dominant, not playing in most of the second half of those games. The one drawback this offense has is moving the ball through the air averaging 191 YPG. The drawback this offense is facing is the fact that the Buckeyes are allowing less than a point per game in the 3rd quarter, whereas Tennessee and Coach Heupel average 10.4 points in the third quarter, so this game will come down to the third quarter, and who can execute after the half. Watch the third quarter; it could be the deciding point of this game.

Tennessee – 13

Ohio St. – 27