SEC predictions for this week including Hogs, Vols

By Jason Pattyson

FAYETTEVILLE — The heavyweight matchup we all hoped for came to fruition in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night. Georgia is not out of the playoff race by any means, but another tumble would dash their chances of repeating as champs. Ole Miss found out that nothing is guaranteed, and Kentucky proved that the road team has the upper hand in conference play so far this year. Texas A&M survived the Razorbacks, but it took a late stop to beat the Hogs. 

Last week, I was 4-2 straight up, and against the spread, I was less than admirable. A&M is at the top of the SEC rankings, and the road teams in SEC play are 3-3 and 9-4 this season. It’s a six-pack this week, so let’s get into it. 

No. 9 Missouri (4-0, 1-0)  at No. 25 Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0) -2

The Aggies lead the series 10-7 and had a convincing 35-14 win in College Station in 2021. Missouri survived Vandy two weeks ago and hit the road for their first test this season against the Aggies. According to head coach Mike Elko, Connor Weigman continues to progress and started to throw this week, but it is a game-time decision. It’s highly doubtful Weigman sees any action this weekend with a bye week next week.  The Tigers were coming off their bye week and got a little healthier, plus they had an extra week to prepare for A&M signal-caller Marcel Reed. He was serviceable in the win, but the Aggie defensive line was the story, recording three sacks and ten tackles for loss in the win. Missouri dodged a missed chip-shot field goal by Vandy to win at home two weeks ago. Now, Tiger quarterback Brady Cook will face his first legit defense on the road. Cook is completing 69% of his passes, but for once, an Eli Drinkwitz offense is run-heavy this year. The Tiger’s rushing attack ran it down Vandy’s throat with 40 attempts, 216 yards, and a score. This Mizzou rushing attack will be tested by the Aggie defensive front seven, which is allowed  2.8 yards per run attempt and 78 rushing YPG. This will be another defensive battle, and Elko and company will get the job done in an ugly one; you can see it on ABC at noon. 

Missouri – 13

Texas A&M – 17

No. 5 Georgia (3-1, 0-1) -24 vs Auburn (2-3, 0-2) 

Georgia led for just 13 seconds in the most anticipated matchup in the 2024 college football season. Now, they host the Tigers, who are trying to fend off a three-game SEC losing streak; they had a four-game skid last year in Freeze’s first season at the helm. Georgia is feeling the effects of a slobber knocker from last Saturday, and they need to be ready for Auburn’s best shot. Freeze and company are sticking with Payton Thorne as he gives them the best shot at a win. Auburn had a 21-10 lead at home against Oklahoma and squandered 17 unanswered in the loss. If they want any chance in this one, the Tigers must play their best game of the season between the hedges. The Bulldogs can’t come out looking bone-tired, or Auburn could steal one at Sanford Stadium. Turnovers will be the key with Auburn as they have given up 9 INTs and fumbled 11 times, losing six for a minus 11 in the turnover margin this season. Georgia will fend off the hangover, and Carson Beck will continue his dominant passing after tossing for 439 yards, three scores, and three INT’s. Bulldogs pull away in the second half and send the Tigers packing; the game can be seen on ESPN at 2:30.

Auburn – 9

Georgia – 31

No. 12 Ole Miss (4-1, 0-1) -9 at South Carolina (3-1, 1-1)

A little-known fact: Ole Miss and South Carolina first met in 1947 in Memphis, and Ole Miss won the first meeting 33-0. Fast forward to 2020, and Ole Miss won 59-21 in a shootout where the Rebels scored 21 points in the fourth quarter for a 17-point win. Last week, Ole Miss found themselves on the business end of Mark Stoops’ defensive stone wall. We all were waiting for Jaxon Dart to let it fly and take the game over, but the Wildcats grounded the high-octane attack. Dart had thrown for an average of 388 YPG, three Touchdowns a game before Saturday, and was limited to 261 yards in the air and one score. South Carolina snuck up on Kentucky and smashed them in the mouth with a 31-6 win on the road. The Rebels will try to perpetuate the road team’s good fortune in the SEC at 2:30 on ABC. 

Ole Miss – 38

South Carolina – 24

No. 1 Alabama (4-0, 1-0) -23 at Vanderbilt (2-2, 0-1) 

The rat bait was out for the taking this week after the emotional win at home against Georgia last week. Jalen Milore accounted for 491 total yards and three touchdowns, accounting for 90% of the Tide offense in the epic showdown. He won’t need to be Superman this Saturday against Vanderbilt, but the rest of the Bama squad will need to be ready. Vandy went on the road two weeks ago and came within a missed 31-yard field goal at Missouri of getting another chance at shocking fans and getting their first SEC win in almost two years. The Door’s last SEC win was against Florida in week 11 in 2022. Alabama will shake off the wear and tear of the win from last week and hand Vandy their 10th straight SEC loss; it will air on SEC Network at 3:15.

Alabama – 38

Vanderbilt – 10

Florida (2-2, 1-1) vs UCF (3-1) -3.5

Florida stays in the state and travels to Orlando to face the UCF Golden Knights. A little fun fact: Florida was a rough Spanish translation for “place of flowers” and has been known as the Sunshine State since 1970. This week, it won’t be flowers or sunshine for the Gators. Gus Malzahn is starting to get his offense on track with senior quarterback KJ Jefferson. The former Razorback quarterback stunned the Gators in Gainesville last year in overtime 39-36, the first game after former Hog OC Dan Enos was let go. Enos is now on Florida’s staff as an offensive analyst. There are three degrees of separation for you. Golden Knight running back senior RJ Harvey is averaging 131 YPG on the ground in Malzahn’s offense, and Jefferson is throwing at a 60% clip with seven touchdowns and three INTs. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz will try to keep the Gator passing attack going with five receivers listed as out for Saturday’s game. If not, then DJ Lageway could see a time soon and often to jump-start the offense with his legs and arm. They did fine at Mississippi State two weeks ago, but the Golden Knights’ secondary is a step up from the Bulldogs. UCF holds on late, and the Gators fall again. Could we be on coach watch on Sunday after this one? SEC Network 6:45. 

Florida – 28

UCF – 31

No. 4 Tennessee (4-0, 1-0) -13.5 at Arkansas (3-2, 1-1) 

Arkansas enters the game with a three-game winning streak against Tennessee dating back to 2011. The Vols have had an extra week to prepare for Arkansas, and head coach Sam Pittman noted confidence issues at the quarterback spot on Monday. When you have offensive linemen and running backs missing blocks and Taylen Green running for his life, those issues will arise for most quarterbacks. When Green has time in the pocket and trusts his reads, he is a very effective passer; the problem is he gets to his first and sometimes second read and has to let it fly. Pittman once coached at Tennessee in 2012, and the Hogs and Vols have a lot of History. Tennessee came to Fayetteville, ranked number one and left Fayetteville on its rears with a loss. Remember 1999? 

The Texas trio of Green, Andrew Armstrong, and Ja’Quinden Jackson all rank in the top three in their respective positions in yards gained in the SEC through five weeks of play. So, the offensive production is there despite the line truffles. Arkansas is getting a little healthy in the secondary, which should help against freshman Nico Iamaleava. However, the Hogs are still without possibly their best cover corner in Jalen Braxton, and Hudson Clark can give them a boost. The OU defense gave DC’s Travis Williams and  Marcus Woodson the roadmap to slowing down the Vols attack. The only two remaining questions are: what can the offensive line do against this stout front seven of Tennessee? Two, can Taylen Green regain confidence at home and become Houdini? Here are the HOGVILLE crew predictions for this one.

Otis Kirk / 31-21 Tennessee 

Dudley Dawson / 31-17 Tennessee

Marshall Foreman / 35-28 Tennessee 

John James / 44-16 Tennessee

Jerry Meadows / 28-27 Arkansas 

Drake Priddy / 38-17 Tennessee

Jason Pattyson / 41-24 Tennessee