SEC Predictions for Week 9

By Jason Pattyson

FAYETTEVILLE — This last weekend was a true separation of the contenders and pretenders. LSU took care of business on the road; Georgia went to Texas and showed the state of Texas and the nation what a battle-tested squad looks like. Oklahoma let their OC go this week due to a poor offensive display in a rout at home. Bama fans felt the PTNS (Post Traumatic Nick Saban) effect and suffered their second loss this year. 

Despite the shootouts and offensive explosions through eight weeks of play, the SEC has four teams ranked in the top ten in FBS in total defense. Texas is at the top, giving up just 9.71 PPG, followed by Ole Miss at two and Tennessee at four. Yet Ole Miss is the lone school ranked eighth in total offense in FBS. 

Last week was a bad week overall, going 5-3 straight up and even worse against the spread. The Hogville staff was not much better, but the Hogs had a shot, and it slipped away. It’s a fresh week, and three teams can become bowl-eligible if the chips fall the right way, so let’s get into it. 

No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2, 1-2) -20 vs Oklahoma (4-3, 1-3) 

The last time these two schools met, we were partying like it was 1999, and Ole Miss won a barn burner 27-25 in the Independence Bowl. Deuce McAllister got the Rebs to a 21-3 lead before Vols Coach Josh Heupel fell short in the comeback. Fast forward 25 years, and you will have two teams trending in the opposite direction. Ole Miss is poised to make a run at a final spot in the playoff, and OU is reeling from a lackluster performance against the Gamecocks at home. Offensive Coordinator Seth Litrell was let go this Sunday; losses to Texas and South Carolina were the final straw, showing no improvement. Yes, OU has had four receivers out most of the season, but the problems were within the play calling and scheme. The top back for OU, Javontae Barnes, is averaging just 44 YPG on the ground; head coach Brent Venables knows that won’t cut it if he wants to stay in Norman. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels needed the bye week after a painful loss to LSU in overtime two weeks ago. They have a chance to run the table, with their only roadblock being hosting Georgia in week 11 at home. Could this be the final push Hotty Toddy needs to break into the CFP? 11 a.m. on ESPN.

Oklahoma – 13

Ole Miss – 30

No. 15 Alabama (5-2, 2-2) -16.5 vs. No. 21 Missouri (6-1, 2-1) 

So, we all heard the shriek that stretched around the world, the reaction to the Tide losing another game in the state of Tennessee. This time, it was a bounce-back game for the Vols after getting all they could handle from Arkansas and Florida the previous two weeks. Fans wondered if this 2024 version was as tough as the non-con schedule said they were. The Vols took a victory lap with a cigar in tow in the 107th edition of the third Saturday in October. Now, the Missouri Tigers and the ground and pound of head coach Eli Drinkwitz. Mizzou had a terrible time with Auburn at home and narrowly escaped with a four-point win. This Tide defense has a chance to limit the run game if they can make Tiger quarterback Bady Cook one-dimensional; he also leads the team in rushing touchdowns with six. The Tide defense had a horrible time the last time they faced a mobile quarterback. The Tigers didn’t fare so well the last time they hit the road when A&M took care of business; this time, Bama does the same and right the ship; the game can be seen on the SEC Network at 3:15 p.m. 

Mizzou – 17

Alabama – 42

No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-2, 2-1) vs No. 5 Texas (6-1, 2-1) -18.5

Well, would you look at that? Vandy cracked the top 25, the second time in 16 years; the last was in 2013. Fun fact: Texas enters the game with a losing record of 3-8-1, according to the Longhorns athletic website, and the last time they played was in 1928. Folks in Arkansas love facts that paint the Longhorns in an unpropitious light. There is a theme in the state of Tennessee: a top-ranked school comes in and gets beat, well, if you’re Alabama, at least. Texas travels to Nashville in a battle for who has the best football team and country music. The Longhorns are a little hot under the collar after the butt-kicking the Bulldogs dealt them at home. They lead the nation in total defense, and head coach Steve Sarkisian is remembering that the days in the SEC have not changed since his time at Alabama. No weeks off, and nothing is a guarantee. Clark Lea looks to shock the world again; how many times does his club need to win before they are taken seriously? These 2-1 teams square off at 3:15 on the SEC Network.

Texas – 31

Vanderbilt – 27

No. 14 Texas A&M ( 6-1, 4-0) -2.5 vs No.8 LSU (6-1, 3-0) 

This game had traditionally been played on the weekend of Thanksgiving the last few years, and with Texas taking the rivalry back, this gets moved up because Texas is right. No other way to put it: the winner has a firm lead heading into the back half of the league schedule, plus a potential ticket to the SEC Championship and CFP. So, not a lot is riding on the line. This showdown has had some epic games; who could forget about that thrilling 74-72 Aggie win in the seventh overtime game in 2018? This will simply come down to defense and execution. I’m not trying to bail on the stats, but LSU has had an uptick on that side of the ball. They made Arkansas one-dimensional and limited the Hogs to just 38 yards rushing; they had averaged just under 200 YPg before the Tigers put the brakes on them. Can Connor Weigman keep the offense ahead of the sticks, and Le’Veon Moss, second in the league in rushing with 674 yards, make positive yardage between the tackles? Those will be the keys to victory in this one, ABC at 6:30 p.m.

LSU – 23

Texas A&M – 17

Kentucky (3-4, 1-4) -2.5 vs Auburn (2-5, 0-4) 

If you had told me this game was for last place in the league at the first of the season, most would have told you how wrong you were; sports fans, and mostly football fans, love to do that. For most of the season, Kentucky has been Jekyll and Hyde; remember Georgia? Auburn can’t help but give away close games, and the fans on the plains are tired of hearing the excuses and throwing players under the bus; just win are the sentiments after all that money was poured into the collective with no results. If the Tigers can not turn the ball over, they have a shot of scoring their first SEC victory before the hourglass in October runs out. However, if the good Kentucky shows up and takes another step toward bowl eligibility, the Wildcat fans won’t be asking for basketball season just yet. The Wildcats might have Hugh Freeze’s number in this one, 6:45 SEC Network. 

Auburn – 14

Kentucky – 23

Mississippi State (1-6, 0-4) vs Arkansas (4-3, 2-2) 

A lot is riding on the line for both the Hogs and Dawgs in this one. First, Arkansas can inch one step closer to a bowl birth and the first in three years. Cowbell U, aka Mississippi State, can get their first home SEC win since week nine against Auburn in 2022 or an SEC-leading seven-game home losing streak. The offense has been making some strides, putting up 31 points against Georgia and 24 points on Texas A&M on the road in the last two weeks. So the Razorback defense that looked great against the Vols took a step back against LSU. Garrett Nussmeier took advantage of time in the pocket, and when he was flushed, the Razorback defense couldn’t shake his timing. Fast forward to week nine, and Bulldog quarterback Michael Van Buren lit up the stat sheet, going 44-78 for 548 yards passing and six touchdowns with two interceptions. Van Buren took over for Baylor transfer Blake Shappen, who was lost for the season with a shoulder injury in September. If Arkansas wants to return to its winning ways, it will have to run the ball effectively. 11:45 SEC Network. Here are the Hogville staff selections for week 9. 

Otis Kirk / 38-31 Arkansas 

Dudley Dawson / 21-17 Arkansas 

Jerry Meadows / 31-27 Arkansas 

Drake Priddy / 34-24 Arkansas 

John James / 32-23 Miss St.

Jason Pattyson / 38-31 Arkansas