THREE THINGS top of mind as No. 23 Arkansas nears start of SEC play

By Kevin McPherson

LITTLE ROCK — The 23rd-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks are on the cusp of closing out their 13-game non-conference slate as well as putting a bow on 2024 with their eyes on bigger SEC and eventual postseason prizes once the calendar turns the page to 2025.

Riding a 5-game winning streak with a chance to record the program’s first unbeaten December in four years, the Hoop Hogs (10-2, NCAA NET No. 47) have one more non-conference game to go against unranked mid-major Oakland on Dec. 30 at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville — which feels like a potential trap game — before the start of SEC play on the road against No. 1 Tennessee in early January.

In some ways the Razorbacks are beginning to define themselves as a good team that can compete for a top-half-of-SEC finish — a bland assessment to make just a few seasons ago, but in a year when 13 of the 16 league teams are projected to make the NCAA Tournament after dominating other teams from high major conferences in November and December it would be an accomplishment in year one of the John Calipari era at Arkansas.

In other ways, these Hogs remain an enigma now more than one-third of the way through the regular season.

Right now, THREE THINGS stand out related to the prognosis for this Arkansas team above all else at this juncture of the season …

1. Availability is the best ability. When in non-conference play has Arkansas been healthy enough to play all nine rotation players with a green light for each to have a full workload if needed? It’s a double-dip question that through 12 games has provided a single answer without hesitation or a need for prolonged contemplation: NEVER.

It’s mostly been an issue on the frontline with preseason/returning All SEC center Jonas Aidoo leading a corps of ailing big men — Aidoo missed three games and was limited in five others; junior forward Trevon Brazile missed two games and may have been limited in a couple more; junior 3/4-combo forward Adou Thiero missed one game and was limited in at least one more; and sophomore center Zvonimir Ivisic missed one game and was limited in at least two more.

Once that frontcourt quartet finally got healthy enough to perform at their collective peak (so far) in the Hoop Hogs’ last outing — a 95-67 home win over North Carolina A&T on Saturday — it was preseason All SEC pick and senior guard Nelly Davis (wrist soreness) who sat out, once again rendering Arkansas with less than a full rotation with zero reasonable depth options outside of their top nine players.

Legitimate injuries. Legitimate health issues. At least a sprinkle of load management added to the mix (an educated guess). Like anything else, there are pros and cons to this …

– Pros: a. With a shallow 9-player rotation (effectively the entire roster in terms of who can help in games), players missing games or playing limited minutes will equate to fresher legs once the brutal 18-game SEC slate rolls around next week; b. players at the back end of your rotation have had opportunities to start and play bigger roles with increases minutes, which should make them battle-tested once the competition heats up; and c. forces personnel experimentation (i.e. more small-ball lineups when bigs are out, or more big lineups when guards are out), which in the end can give a coach an upper hand in playing to strengths in different matchup scenarios and/or dealing with future injuries/ailments as they arise.

– Cons: a. IF not at full strength should injuries continue to impact roster attrition moving forward, it will likely be a season of living on the NCAAT Bubble, or worse, and of course to which degree will depend on who is out and for how long; b. lack of full expression of on-court chemistry heading into league play, which could be a problem on many fronts (i.e. the Hogs have ongoing issues with self-inflicted wounds / unforced turnovers that seems related to players not always on the same page which in turn seems to be linked to ever-changing personnel groups and roles by default due to injuries); and c. individual players not quite hitting their stride or not yet comfortable in their roles at the start of league play (i.e. Aidoo may need a handful more games or so to consistently find his groove, but by then the Hogs will have potentially played 4-5 league games with results impacted by key pieces not yet in mid-season form).

Are the injury concerns a THING? Absolutely. And where the injury narrative is headed is anyone’s guess, but a less-than-all-hands-on-deck scenario moving through the SEC will be a much tougher task than patch-working and band-aiding during a non-conference slate that was loaded with Quad-4 opponents.

2. Backcourt and frontcourt doing impressive balancing act signaling team growth with multiple players flashing all league potential. The current 5-game winning streak has revealed several positive upticks for the Hogs after their 5-2 start to the season. For one, getting Aidoo back was a shot in the arm in terms of the team’s surges in frontline physicality and paint presence. Seemingly almost simultaneously Brazile is playing the most reliable basketball of his career at both ends of the court. Thiero has been a force bully-balling his way to the rim — both in halfcourt and transition — for manchild finishes or frequent trips to the free throw line. Ivisic has shifted from early-season starter to playing off the bench, but he remains the team’s most efficient three-point shooter while providing some rim-protection.

During the 5-game winning streak, Aidoo averaged 10.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 1.0 steal in 22.4 minutes per outing while shooting 53.8% from the field and 73.3% from the free throw line. Prior to that, Aidoo had missed the aforementioned three games with minimal production in a combined 32 minutes in the other contests. In the same stretch of games, Brazile also significantly raised his production while averaging 9.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 1.0 assist, and 1.0 steal in 21.8 minutes per outing while shooting 75.0% from the field. On the season, Thiero has been all conference-caliber good as he leads the team in scoring (17.6 points per game, ranks 7th in SEC)), rebounds (5.7), steals (1.9, ranks 11th in SEC), field goal percentage (61.9%, ranks 2nd in SEC), made field goals per game (6.4, ranks 5th in SEC), and made free throws per contest (4.4 ranks 6th in SEC). Ivisic is contributing 9.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks while shooting 52.8% from the field, including 46.5% from 3.

Aidoo and Brazile have joined Thiero in giving the team scoring juice at or near the rim. They’ve joined Ivisic in giving the team multiple shot-blocking / shot-altering weapons. Aidoo was expected to provide space-eating, physical paint presence — and he’s doing just that — but Brazile adding more of the same in combination with his agility and respectable face-up shooting has been an unexpected surprise while adding to the favorable matchup options Calipari has at his disposal.

Playing all 12 games with splendid — and more importantly consistent — scorer-facilitator flare as a freshman, Fland is also giving all league performances reminiscent of the work former Arkansas star and NBA guard Lee Mayberry did in his rookie campaign of 1988-89. Throw in go-to guy down the stretches of tight games that resulted in the team’s two best wins — an 89-87 neutral-site Quad-1 win over then-No. 14 Michigan and a 76-73 road win over Miami — and Fland is arguably the team’s MVP to this juncture of the season. He’s second on the team in scoring (15.3 points per game, ranks 16th SEC) while leading the Hogs in assists (6.2, ranks 2nd SEC and top 20 nationally) to go with 1.8 steals (ranks 12th in the SEC) and 3.6 rebounds while shooting 37.3% from 3 and 84.8% from the free throw line (ranks 8th in the SEC). He’s the only player in the league to average at least 12.0 points and 5.0 assists per game.

Like Fland, sophomore guard DJ Wagner has played in each of the team’s first 12 games, and to this point he’s shown improvement from a season ago when he was a true freshman at Kentucky. Wagner scores at a 10.1 points per game clip as he is one of only three Hogs averaging double-digit scoring on the season. His 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals per game both rank 2nd on the team, and he’s also chipping in 3.3 rebounds per game. Coming off a sub-30% season shooting from 3 in Lexington, Wagner is hitting 41.5% from distance in ’24-25, which ranks second on the team and would rank 18th all-time at Arkansas should he be able to maintain that efficiency through the end of the season. In the Hogs’ four biggest games — then-No. 8 Baylor (72-67 neutral-site loss), Illinois (90-77 neutral-site loss), Miami, and Michigan — Wagner actually raised his production, averaging 11.5 points and 3.5 assists.

Davis came in not only with previous conference player of the year honors and preseason All SEC honors, but he’s on multiple national player of the year watchlists. Yet, he’s not had the role envisioned when he transferred in the offseason — that of a volume scorer and go-to playmaker — as he’s been primarily a complementary, off-the-ball offensive presence while bringing value as a defender, rebounder, and 50/50-ball warrior. Averaging 9.2 points per game on the season, Davis did increase his output in his last 6 outings as he averaged 10.2 points per game in that stretch. He’s been efficient shooting in ’24-25 — 46.3% from the field, including 38.8% from 3, and 88.9% from the free throw line — to go with contributing 3.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game.

Freshmen wings Karter Knox (6.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 78.9% free throws) and Billy Richmond III (5.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, 64.6% field goals) have shown flashes of what made them 5-star recruits a year ago in high school, and both have shown steady improvement which is a good sign for a team short on depth.

Fland and Wagner are leading the team in minutes, they’re on the court together the majority of the time, and each is bring scoring punch with plenty of lead guard qualities. Davis is becoming a reliable double-figure scorer, and again he’s doing it efficiently, even if he’s not unloading the high volume that was originally anticipated. Knox and Richmond are going to factor into the team’s fortunes moving forward, so they’re continued improvement is more of a necessity than a luxury.

Frontcourt and backcourt collectively, there’s a sense of production and impact balance emerging just in time for league play as the Hogs have gone from relying so much on Fland and Thiero having monster games to getting more from everybody across the board. In the most-recent win over NCA&T, the Hogs had seven players score in double-figures — a season-high — and prior to that the team had six Hogs hit double-digits in an 82-57 win over Central Arkansas, and four scored 10 or more points in each of the wins over Michigan and Miami. The interaction between Fland and Wagner as passers with Aidoo and Brazile as beneficiaries has stood out lately, as has the overall inside-out chemistry between the frontline and backcourt.

Fland and Thiero appear to be on a path toward earning all league recognition, and Aidoo could join them. Wagner, Davis, and Brazile bring starter value to round out the team’s top six rotation.

The offense has improved (currently ranked 59th in Division 1 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom) although defensively there may be some slight slippage of late (currently ranked 27th in D1 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom). The Razorbacks remain self-inflicted-wound prone (i.e. unforced turnovers coming sometimes in clusters), vulnerable defensively against high screen and dribble-handoff schemes, spotty in transition defense, low volume in generating free throw attempts and inconsistent in free throw efficiency, and trending down a bit lately in creating steals and live-ball turnovers.

On the other hand, the Hogs are one of the best field goal shooting teams in the country (50.8%, ranks 11th in D1), which includes a respectable No. 85 ranking in D1 in three-point shooting efficiency (36.1%), and overall they’ve been among the best teams scoring in transition (16.0 fastbreak points per game, ranks 21st in D1). Defensively, Arkansas is holding teams to 29.8% shooting from 3 (ranks 58th in D1) and 40.8% overall shooting from the field (ranks 82nd in D1), yields only 8.7 offensive rebounds per game (ranks 36th in D1), and the Razorbacks do not foul a lot (14.3 per game, ranks top 25 in D1) thus they’re able to limit sending teams to the free throw line (13.8 opponent free throw attempts per game, ranks 12th in D1).

The trends are mostly moving in the right direction while among the two biggest problem areas — lack of availability and self-inflicted wounds — the latter seems fixable.

Arkansas emerging as a well-rounded team with frontcourt and backcourt balance, is that a THING? Yep, right now it is and the timing could not be better.

3. Hoop Hog strengths and potential are relative to competing in a bigger, badder-than-ever SEC. Coming into the season, it looked like an Arkansas team with the right pieces for a top 3-4 finish in the league and a top 10-15ish national ranking — certainly those are still attainable — but a couple of early Hog losses combined with an unprecedented top-to-bottom elite SEC confronts even the most optimistic Hog fan with the notion that maybe right now based on factors described above in sections 1 and 2 their favorite team is closer to a top-half middling squad (somewhere 6-through-9 in the pecking order) than one that looks destined to be in that top 3-4 mix.

At least four league teams look Final Four caliber right now — Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida — and Arkansas seems more comparable to the likes of Kentucky, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State.

That’s okay if it shakes out that way in reality, and certainly it will be great if it lands as originally projected prior to the start of regular season games in early November. This feels like an Arkansas team that could reasonably finish with a final league record anywhere from 11-7 (with a max ceiling of 12-6) to 8-10 (with a worst-case floor of 7-11). Before the wins over Miami then Michigan that were procured a few weeks ago, the range of ceiling/floor seemed much bleaker.

The good news, assuming the Hogs take care of business on Monday against Oakland in the Quad-4 non-conference finale, is that ALL 18 league games will count as either Quad-1 or Quad-2 wins or losses, which means an upside of picking up a quality win every night out with no risk of suffering a bad loss related to the quad ranking system.

The Hogs are 47th in NCAA NET rankings (ranks 14th out 16 SEC teams) with an NCAA Tournament 9-seed projection (a.k.a dangerously close to the Bubble) according to the most-recent ESPN Bracketology update, and the resume is relatively weak compared to most league teams due to only one quad-1 win (Michigan) while loading up on Quad-4 opponents (a total of 7 counting Oakland) in non-conference play. If the Hogs prove to be a middling SEC team and finish 9-9, for example, they’d likely lock up an NCAAT at-large bid heading into the postseason SEC Tournament, although it might not improve from, or be as good as, their current 9-seed projection.

Should the Hogs get to 11-7 and finish among the top 5-6 teams in the league, it could be good enough for NCAAT seed range of 5-7. Anything better than an 11-7 league finish and we’re likely talking about an NCAAT seed of no worse than 3 or 4.

With a sliding scale of the league being even better than originally thought combined with the Hogs so far not living up to what was originally expected of them, is adjusting expectations now a prudent THING? Yes, for the time being, that is THE THING to consider until it starts to play out.