Week 12 SEC predictions

By Jason Pattyson

FAYETTEVILLE — Alabama marched into Tiger Stadium and stole the Tigers’ CFP chances, the mascot, the trailer that Mike the Tiger was in, and anything else that could resemble any shreds of hope the LSU faithful had for a playoff run. Georgia couldn’t hold into the ball in a rain-soaked loss to Ole Miss, and Lane Kiffin is the toast of the South, with the Rebels poised for a playoff run and playing the best football in the league at just the right time. 

South Carolina became bowl eligible, and Mizzou all bet ended the Sooners bid of 27 straight trips to the postseason in a season Brent Venables would love to forget, and the Orange T’s cruised and handled their business. 

4-2 last week straight up, and 2-4 ATG was a week to forget for this pseudo-gambling key pounder. The staff got a week off to recover from the constant barrage of surface-to-air-to-surface missiles Jaxon Dart delivered in Fayetteville.  The Hogs host a bitter rival in the Shorthorns, so lets get into it.

No.12 Georgia (7-2, 5-2) -10 vs No. 7 Tennessee (8-1, 5-1) 

College Gameday and SEC Nation will be in Athens for this one , with major CFP implications on Saturday night. Carson Beck had a terrible game in Oxford last week in a weather-soaked fumble fest loss. That put Ole Miss in the driver’s seat with a chance to control their destiny. Tennessee has that same chance of making its case on the back of the bulldogs. To this point, the Vols have been able to navigate around their lone loss, a road loss to Arkansas, and survive their schedule despite the dropoff in offensive production since SEC play began; the Offensive line for Tennessee, actually the left side of the line will need to play their best game of the season to keep track of the CFP. 

Games like Saturday tend to expose glaring weaknesses that teams have all been able to overcome with stellar plays from other positions until crunch time hits. This is that time, and the clock might be running out on the Vol’s luck because another loss might be all the committee needs to bounce Tennessee out and reinsert Georgia due to their body of work; Bulldogs roll, 6:30 p.m. ABC.

Tennessee – 13

Georgia – 34

Florida (4-5, 2-4) vs No. 22 LSU (6-3, 3-2) -4.5

The Gators have kept the locker room tact over the last few weeks despite a couple of back-breaking losses, a close one to rival Georgia, and a butt-kicking from Texas on the road last week. Florida Athletic Director Scott Stricklin announced last week that Napier would be back in Gainesville next year regardless of the win-loss record in 2024. Que the trip to Death Valley and enter the Tiger’s den for a date with a group ready to make a late push to convince anyone willing to listen that if LSU runs the table and a lot of help, there still lies a narrow chance the Tigers could back into the CFP. The injuries are too much for Florida to pull off the upset, 2:30 p.m. ABC. 

LSU – 41

Florida – 14

No. 21 South Carolina (6-3, 4-3) -13.5 vs No. 23 Missouri (7-2, 3-2) 

Mizzou escaped the clutches of defeat with two scores in the final 1:06 in the final 1:06 of the fourth quarter to all but end the Sooner’s 26-year bowl streak. South Carolina avoided the hangover of the Texas A&M win to get a big road victory against Vandy. Tiger quarterback Brady Cook was listed as doubtful against this week for a second week in a row, and they will rely on Drew Pyne this week. He was pedestrian against OU in the come-from-behind victory, 14-27, 145 yards and three touchdowns. It will come down to defense for Mizzou. Can they stop Rocket Sanders and LaNorris Sellars? If the dynamic duo can be as effective as they were the prior two weeks, then it could be a big day for Shane Beemer and company in CoMo, 3:15 p.m. SEC Network. 

South Carolina – 31

Missouri – 10

Auburn (3-6) -24 vs UL Monroe (5-4)

The stove top is warming up fast on the plains.  A lackluster short tenure, to this point, has landed this once-thought-of offensive genius squarely on the hot seat. Revenue sharing could prevent a lot of coaches with large buyouts from being fired until the schools can get a handle on that landscape. The Tigers would have to run the table to become bowl-eligible, a tall order with A&M and Alabama looming. ULM has its own set of problems entering the game on Saturday. The War Hawks were thumped by 21 points by Texas St. at home last weekend, and if they want to sniff a bowl game, it all depends on either a miracle this weekend against the Tigers or a win against Arkansas St. or Louisiana.

They are slight favorites against A-St. and a heavy underdog against the Ragin’ Cajuns. Freshman running back Amad Hardy has averaged 20 carries and 134 rushing yards over the last four games. ULM has given up over 37 points a game in its three-game losing streak, while Aubbie has lost four of its last five games. Peyton Thorne is the key this weekend if he can play; he’s still nursing a hurt shoulder. If the turnover bug stays away and Jarquez Hunter totes the mailbag, Auburn wins going away, and it could be the scores galore for all in a shootout at 11:45 a.m. SEC Network.

ULM – 28

Auburn – 41

Kentucky (3-6) vs Murray St. (1-9) 

This season has not gone as the Commonwealth nor Mark Stoops had planned. The streak of the Wildcats making a bowl for a ninth year in a row is in jeopardy, with Texas and Louisville looming to end the season. The Racers are currently on a seven-game losing streak and are primed for a good ole SEC butt-whipping at Kroger Field. Murray State’s lone win came against arguably the works team in FBS Mississippi Valley State, who lost to UAPB 35-21 a couple of weeks ago. No line is this one, and Blake Vandagriff might get a half-off if all things fall in place early for the Wildcats. Wildcats bug in this one, streaming on ESPN Plus and ABC Plus, 11:45 a.m.

Murray St. – 3

Kentucky – 63

Alabama (7-2) vs Mercer (9-1)

The Crimson Tide gets a breather from their ’24 SEC schedule with a visit from Mercer. The Tide will have to keep Bears wide receiver/kick returner Brayden Smith in check on special teams; he is shifty and will make you pay in open space. Freshman quarterback Whitt Newbauer has shared duties with D.J. Smith and Kalen Beboer, and the Tide defense will have to prepare for both on Saturday. The Tide offense might have its work cut out for them if the Bears can find some magic early. The thing with these games is that if you let a team like Mercer, who has had success all season, start to believe in and give themselves a chance in the fourth quarter, crazy things can happen; just ask Vandy. Jalen Milroe must establish early that the Bama offense is in control to set the tone. Tide wins this one, but it might be closer than some would like; ESPN Plus, SEC Network Plus, 1 p.m.

Mercer – 17

Alabama – 38

No.15 Texas A&M (7-2)  -39 vs New Mexico St. (2-9)

Mike Elko and the Aggies used the week off after the South Carolina shakedown to turn the tables on the Aggies of New Mexico state. Marcell Reed and Connor Weigman will both see opportunities to put up big numbers in this one, and A&M can look ahead to Auburn and the renewed end-of-season rival Texas. The spread will hold, and then some in this blowout win, 6:45 p.m.SEC Network. 

New Mexico St. – 7

Texas A&M – 62

Arkansas (5-4, 3-3)  vs No. 5 Texas (8-1, 4-1) -13.5 

It’s hard to put into words what a rivalry means across multiple generations sometimes, not this one. Texas two-stepped into Razorback Stadium in 2021 and limped out like they had gone ten rounds in a good ole Texas bar fight, losing handily 40-21 – and it could have been worse. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian noticed that if his Longhorns were going to stay at the top in the SEC when they moved to the league in 2024, they had better get the players to contend with the top. He did that, and it has shown through 11 weeks of play OU didn’t get the memo.

 Texas leads the series 56-23, but the Hogs are riding a two-game win streak against the Shorthorns. They hold the longest winning streak in 14 games, 1894-1932. This one is predicated on the health of quarterback Taylen Green; how banged up was that knee in the tail kicking they got at the hands of Ole Miss two weeks ago? If Green can stay upright, the Hogs have a good chance because the matchup is good for Arkansas. The Razorbacks roll in on Saturday, and there is a rash of injuries with End Anton Juncaj and Anthony Switzer out. Green and Ja’Quinden Jackson are listed as probable, with running back Braylon Russell as questionable. 

Regardless of the records, rival games like this tend not to rely on numbers but more on emotion. The number that could impact this game is 14, which is the number of interceptions the Longhorns defense has, which leads the league. Green can be a turnover machine and seems good for one INT a game when he’s running for his life. Here are the Hogville staff writers’ picks for the ABC tilt on Saturday at 11 a.m.

Otis Kirk / 42-28 Texas 

Dudley Dawson / 38-21 Texas 

Jerry Meadows / 45-13 Texas 

Drake Priddy / 38-17 Texas 

John James / 31-29 Texas 

Jason Pattyson / 34-28 Texas