Hoop Hogs notebook: Arkansas-v-Furman preview including Paladins scout, Musselman musings, UA’s keys to success, more

By Kevin McPherson

LITTLE ROCK — The Arkansas Razorbacks’ remedy for a three-losses-in-four-games slide was a mid-week win over a college basketball blueblood in the form of the 7th-ranked Duke Blue Devils, but that sigh-of-relief home triumph is sandwiched between two home tests against tough mid-major opponents both hailing from the Southern Conference with one of those having already taken down the Hogs on their home court and the other on its way to Fayetteville for an early-week non-conference clash.

Arkansas (5-3, No. 46 in KenPom.com’s rankings) will host highly regarded mid-major Furman (4-4, No. 136 in KenPom) at 7 p.m. CT on Monday (SEC Network Plus livestream) at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville. It will be the first-ever meeting between the two schools.

The Paladins played the role of giant killer less than eight months ago, upsetting 4-seed Virginia as a 13-seed in the first round of the 2022-23 NCAA Tournament in March, a game that was preceded months earlier by the Paladins’ 19-point victory over SEC member South Carolina on a neutral court. Furman’s fellow Southern Conference member North Carolina-Greensboro waltzed into to BWA on Nov. 17 of the current ’23-24 campaign to claim an impressive 78-72 win, marking the first non-conference loss at BWA for fifth-year Head Hog Eric Musselman.

Musselman and his crew surely have their head on a swivel and their full respect paid to Furman, especially after what happened against UNCG that triggered a slump that included a 1-2 run at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in The Bahamas (Nov. 22-24) revealing significant issues on both sides of the ball.

To complicate matters entering the Razorbacks’ most-recent mega matchup against 7th-ranked Duke in the first-ever ACC/SEC Challenge on Wednesday at BWA, the team played without leading scorer and star junior wing Tramon Mark (hip and groin injury, his status update is down the page under Muss musings). But Arkansas had its best combination of play on both offense and defense so far this season and led by as many as 14 points in the second half before holding off a furious Blue Devils rally in the closing two minutes for an 80-75 win in front of a wild and record crowd of 20,344 at BWA on Wednesday.

Arkansas claimed its final 14-point lead at 67-53, and after the Blue Devils pulled within 9 points at 70-61, star sophomore forward Trevon Brazile hit an end-of-shot-clock triple at the 2:18 mark for a 73-61 Razorbacks advantage. The Blue Devils (now 5-2 on the season) used a full-court trapping defense to force several Hog turnovers in the final two minutes to close within a one-possession deficit, 78-75, with 17 seconds left, but the Hogs made 2-of-4 free throws from there while getting a couple of defensive stops to seal their five-point victory,

Senior guard Khalif Battle had his fourth 21-point game this season to go with 5 rebounds and 5 assists to lead the Hogs in his sixth man role, and star sophomore forward Trevon Brazile put up his third double-double in the last four games — 19 points (6-of-9 field goals, including 4-of-7 from 3, and 3-of-6 free throws), 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks — while senior guard El Ellis returned to the starting lineup and broke out of his recent slump with 9 points, a team-high 6 assists, 3 rebounds, and ZERO turnovers in 31 minutes. Senior forward Chandler Lawson started and finished with 7 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 blocks. Freshman guard Layden Blocker had 9 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals off the bench. Seniors Jeremiah Davenport and Makhi Mitchell each scored 6 points.

The ball movement had energy for once as the Hogs had 17 assists on their 26-of-53 overall field goal effort (49.1%), including a strong 9-of-22 showing from 3 (40.9%). Peeling that back a bit further, Arkansas’ second-half efficiency was brilliant — 14-of-23 field goals (60.9%), including 4-of-8 from 3 (50%) — which helps explain the team expanding a one-point halftime lead into multiple double-digit advantages in the final 12 minutes of the contest. The Hogs made only 19-of-30 free throws (63.3%).

Defensively, the Arkansas mostly stifled Duke’s top-10 nationally ranked offense, holding the Blue Devils to 24-of-67 field goals (35.8%), including only 6-of-22 from 3 (27.3%. Duke had its own struggles at the foul line, making only 21-of-31 (67.7%).

Duke came in shooting over 50% overall from the field, including nearly 60% on two-point field goals and over 35% on three-pointers. As a team, the Blue Devils enjoyed a near 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, but managed just 10 assists against 8 turnovers on Wednesday.

The Razorbacks dominated bench scoring (36-9), blocked shots (10-3), and assists (17-10), and they won the overall rebounding battle (40-34). Duke won turnovers (12-8), points-off-turnovers (12-11), offensive rebounds (11-5), second-chance points (14-5), points-in-the-paint (36-28), fastbreak points (24-11), and steals (7-6).

Although not a finely tuned machine through eight games, the Razorbacks did pick themselves up to get back into the win column against Duke while earning what will be their first Quad-1 win of the season.

Scouting the Furman Paladins

Coming off a 28-8 season (including 15-3 to win the Southern Conference and the aforementioned win over Virginia as part of the team’s run to the ’22-23 NCAAT Round of 32), seventh-year head coach Bob Richey has this Furman team sitting at 4-4 counting a 70-69 road loss against Princeton after surrendering an 11-point lead in the final 4:10 on Saturday, setting the Paladins up for a quick two-day turnaround into their next road game against the Hogs.

The Paladins — the preseason pick to win the Southern Conference again in ’23-24 — go about 10-deep with a small-ball heavy lineup in their top rotation.

Senior 6-4 wing/small forward Marcus Foster leads the team with 19.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 28.6 minutes per game while shooting 49.1% from the field, including 28.3% from 3, and 83.8% from the free throw line. Junior 6-1 guard JP Pegues is contributing 15.7 points, 5.4 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.4 steals in 33.6 minutes while shooting 41.2% field goals, including 32.6% from 3, and 78.8% free throws.

Third-year 6-5 forward Alex Williams missed some game action in November but has played in the last three games and is averaging 11.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.0 steal in 22.5 minutes while shooting 41.7% from the field, including 35.0% from 3, and 66.7% from the free throw line. Junior 6-0 guard Pjay Smith, Jr. is chipping in 10.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.0 steal in 30.3 minutes per game while shooting 50.0% from the field, including 40.0% from 3, and 90.0% free throws. Junior 6-3 guard Carter Whitt, in his second season at Furman after transferring from Wake Forest, is averaging 9.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.3 steals in 22.6 minutes per game while shooting 46.6% from the field, including 33.3% from 3, and 69.2% from the free throw line.

Each player in Furman’s five-player frontline corps of 6-9 senior forward Garrett Hien, 6-6 junior forward Tyrese Hughey, 6-7 sophomore Ben Vanderwal, freshman 6-11 forward Cooper Bowser, and freshman 6-6 forward Davis Molnar is averaging double-digit minutes of playing time while the group combines to produce 27.3 points, 18.9 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 3.4 steals, and 2.6 blocks per game. Although not in high volume, Hughey is making 50.0% of his three-point attempts (5-of-10 on the season).

The Paladins’ offense is by far the strength of the team, ranking 76th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom while the team’s defense ranks 226th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Furman is scoring 82.3 points per game (ranks 53rd in Division 1) with 18.1 assists (ranks 1th in D1) fueling 29.3 made field goals per outing (ranks 63rd). The Paladins are wildy efficient shooting inside the arc after good ball movement, making 48.0% of their total shots (57th in D1) which includes a staggering 62.1% on two-point field goals (6th in D1) and 31.4% from 3 on 8.8 made triples per game (the latter ranks 77th in D1). The team ranks in top half of D1 in both free throws made (15.0 per game) and attempted (21.4), but its 70.2% efficiency ranks outside the top half of D1.

As good as Furman is at shooting inside the arc, the Paladins are balanced in shot distribution — 33.0 two-point field goal attempts and 27.9 three-point field goal attempts per game. The team also struggles taking care of the basketball, averaging 14.5 turnovers per game to rank in the bottom 50 of D1 in that category.

Defensively, the Paladins rank near the bottom of D1 in points yielded per game (78.8 to ranks 325th); defensive field goal percentage (45.8% to rank 290th) which includes defensive two-point field goal percentage (52.4% to rank 283rd) and defensive three-point field goal percentage (33.1% to rank 211th). Furman’s 8.1 steals per game (82nd in D1) represents the bulk of the team’s 12.3 forced turnovers per outing. It’s not a rim-protection team (only 3.0 blocks per game to rank 224th in D1), but it’s respectable in defensive rebounding (27.6 defensive boards per game ranks 77th in D1 and represents a 73.4% defensive rebounding percentage).

Muss musings

- On the status of star junior wing Tramon Mark, who missed the Hogs’ win over Duke after being wheeled off the court on a stretcher in the closing stages against UNC following a hard fall in The Bahamas before going through a battery of medical testing and recovery: ”Today (Saturday, Dec. 2), in uniform. Went through some things that were non-contact. Went through some things that were not going to be reactionary plays, meaning things on defense. The concern right now is not the back. The concern continues to be the hip and the groin. He did a lot more today than what I thought he would have done. And then we’ll see where he’s at, really, tomorrow (Sunday, Dec. 3), to be honest with you. Tomorrow (Sunday, Dec. 3) after practice and then how he is at shootaround Monday will determine… I would say that we feel very confident that he would play in the game after Monday (against Oklahoma on Saturday, Dec. 9) based on the progress. Monday (Dec. 4 against Furman) is still up in the air, I would say.”

- On the Furman Paladins: ”They play with great pace off makes and misses. Their point guard does a great job of controlling pace. He’s a high steal player at that point position. I mean, you’ve got to, you’ve got to conserve your dribbles at the nail because they really overflood sometimes on the strong side. So you’ve got to understand that there’s guys that are standing there waiting to dig if you put it on the deck, but again, I think really well-coached team played with great pace, run great offense, take a lot of threes. They took 33 the other night. Number 24 Williams. who went to the same high school as (Hogs senior wing Jeremiah) Davenport took eight threes at the power forward position. Not often you see a power forward have eight three-balls attempted.  Great point guard play. They could play two point guards at a time. Sometimes Carter Whit, number 11, will slide to the off-guard, and he’s kind of a point guard as well. So a lot of…and then Foster’s a star player at the small forward.”

- On his Arkansas teams having success on big stages (the Hoop Hogs are 8-7 against Top 10-ranked teams under Musselman, plus as his pre-game team talking points that include must-win scenarios): ”My mom’s really pumped up about those wins for sure .. in all seriousness, it’s hard to beat them, and it’s kind of been in a relatively short time. It’s not like it’s over a 12-year period, a 15-year period. The team has risen to a lot of really big occasions on big stages. You do that with having really good players who are really confident … It’s (must-win dialogue with the team) just trying to be truthful with them. Our fans knew that (the Duke game) was a must-win. You know, it’s really comforting when you’re making a protein shake in the morning getting ready to go to work and your wife tells you it’s a must win and your daughter’s sitting there. We all knew it. If you tell your team it’s a must-win and you don’t win, then you’ve got to figure out how to regroup and regain confidence and set new goals moving forward because there is risk of doing it. You’ve got to understand when you do put pressure on a group, and you’ve got to make sure that a group can handle it. We certainly felt like we could handle it, mentally, and if you don’t win it, like I said you have to figure out how to regroup and how to refocus.”

Keys to success for Arkansas

– Getting a healthy Tramon Mark back could take a few more days, maybe not, but the team made that adjustment remarkbly well (pun intended) against the Blue Devils and it may be another all-hands-on-deck need against a good Furman crew. The contributions of senior lead guard El Ellis, senior forward / center Chandler Lawson, freshman guard Layden Blocker, senior wing Jeremiah Davenport, and senior center Makhi Mitchell were critically needed in concert with the big-production games from Brazile and Battle to defeat a worthy Duke team. The Razorbacks could use more of the same, and might this be the wake-up (not breakout) game for senior guard Devo Davis? The preseason All SEC second-team pick has been steady in several games this season but has yet to fully put his stamp on this team, which is not unlike the early going in previous seasons when Devo was among a scant group of returnees learning to acclimate on a roster full of key newcomers. His efficiency offensively (34.8% field goals, including 22.2% from 3, and 61.1% free throws) represents a significant backslide as does his overall production (7.9 points per game is the fewest in his career, 4.3 rebounds is second fewest, 2.3 assists is second fewest, and 0.6 steals is fewest). He is also averaging a career-low 1.4 turnovers per game while bringing more of a whatever-the-team-needs-jack-of-all-trades vibe, but at some point Davis is likely to fine-tune his role while improving his production and efficiency — this is what will serve this team best — and with five games in December leading up to a brutal 18-game SEC slate it might time for that to start to kick in against the Paladins on Monday.

– As stated above against Duke, the Hogs were mostly sound and the better team on both sides of the ball after having so much go wrong in the team’s slump. On offense, attention to moving the ball via the pass to set up open looks and easier conversions is called for once gain, as is a determined drive game against an inferior team athletically with the goal of getting close-range shots and/or trips to the free throw line. Brazile appears to be getting more comfortable offensively as he’s brought volume rebounding out of his bag, while at least for one game Battle showed some offensive diversity as a dueling scorer-facilitator off the bench with Ellis finding his groove once again running the team while thawing out his scoring game that went radio-silent in three games in The Bahamas the previous week. Taking care of the basketball to ensure the highest possible volume of shot attempts is always the goal, but may be more important here attacking a subpar defense while trying to out-duel a high-performing offense.

– Defensively, the Hogs are facing a second consecutive opponent that is putting up elite assist numbers, two-point shooting efficiency, and overall team scoring numbers, but unlike Duke the Paladins do not typically take great care of the basketball. While the Hogs have often been anemic getting steals and forcing turnovers, there’s an opportunity here to generate live-ball turnovers and convert those into easy scores and transition offense. The Razorbacks’ have been awful in transition defense, an area that will likely be a focal point in Musselman’s game-planning. As good as Furman is at efficiently scoring two-point field goals, the key is that the Paladins are balanced in their volume of shots inside and outside of the arc, creating great floor spacing for crisp ball movement while forcing teams to guess where the next shot is coming from. Arkansas will need discipline on the defensive end as it will be challenged at all three levels by savvy ball movement and Furman’s veteran personnel skilled in finishing off plays.

Hoop Hogs updates and tidbits

– The Razorbacks improved to 3-2 all-time against Duke, a series that dates back to the 1989-90 season with every meeting between the two schools played on the biggest of national college-basketball stages: The then-No. 7 Hogs losing to then-No. 15 Duke, 97-83, in the ’89-90 NCAA Tournament Final Four; the then-No. 2 Hogs defeating then-No. 6 Duke, 98-88, in the prestigious ’90-91 preseason NIT tournament in Madison Square Garden in New York (the Blue Devils would go on to win the ’90-91 national title); the then-No. 2 Hogs defeating then-No. 6 Duke, 76-72, in the biggest-stakes game to date between the two schools, which was the ’93-94 NCAAT national title game that earned Arkansas the program’s only national championship; and the then-No. 17 Hogs losing to then-No. 9 Duke, 78-69, in the NCAAT Elite Eight in ’21-22 that advanced the Blue Devils to the Final Four.

– With the victory over the Blue Devils, Musselman captured his 100th win at Arkansas, he moved to 37-1 in non-conference games played at BWA, and he improved to 3-2 in conference-v-conference Challenge games (includes wins over TCU and West Virginia at home and losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor on the road in the now defunct Big 12/SEC Challenge). He’s 100-45 overall as Head Hog, which includes a 55-12 record against non-conference opponents and a 45-33 mark against SEC foes.

– Arkansas dropped out of the Associated Press Top 25 poll that was released on Monday, Nov. 27, following the team’s 1-2 run at Battle 4 Atlantis in The Bahamas last week. The Hogs are currently ranked No. 46 in KenPom.com’s Division 1 ratings (49th in adjusted offensive efficiency and also 49th in adjusted defensive efficiency), and they’re No. 49 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI).

– On Tuesday, Nov. 28 — immediately following Arkansas’ three-losses-in-four games slide and a day prior to the team’s home win over 7th-ranked Duke — the Hoop Hogs were projected as a 10-seed and one of the “last four byes” as a “Bubble” team by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi in his most-recent Bracketology update that projects the entire NCAA Tournament 68-team field.

– After playing Furman on Monday, Arkansas will play it’s fourth neutral-site game of the season as the Hogs will match up against 25th-ranked Oklahoma at 3 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 9, at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Okla. (ESPN2).

– Hogville is your one-stop shop for complete 2023-24 Arkansas Razorbacks men’s basketball coverage (schedule, results, and game articles are linked here: https://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=756493.0) … plus, here is our latest Hoop Hogs’ stock-risers report following Arkansas’ 80-75 home win over No. 7 Duke on Nov. 29 (article linked here: https://forums.hogville.net/index.php?topic=761815.0).