Week 14 SEC predictions including Hogs, Tigers

By Jason Pattyson

FAYETTEVILLE — We have come to the conclusion of the 2024 college football regular season, which means it’s rivalry week. The chance for some of these teams in the league to spoil a spot in the College Football Playoff. Georgia Tech, Vandy, and A&M could play the villain this weekend. Arkansas, Florida, and Oklahoma hit the six-win mark, but they all but guaranteed the league would secure 13 bowls. If Aubbie could pull the upset against Bama, it would be the most the SEC has ever sent bowling. 

Oklahoma stunned Alabama and the league, dismantling Jalen Milroe and the Tide offense. The Florida Gators stunned Ole Miss with a timely interception to close the Rebs. LSU held on in the final minutes at home against Vandy, and Auburn stunned the Aggies in overtime with a dropped pass in the end zone. 

Last week was a good week and went 7-3 straight up, but like the CFP, my predictions were in a spin cycle due to the upsets, going 4-6 ATS. With this being rivalry week all bets are off when it comes to predicting what will happen but I will try my best, so lets get into it. 

No.20 Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2) vs No.3 Texas (10-1, 6-1) -5

The Lone Star Showdown renews its long, storied, and hated rivalry since the Aggies broke away from the SEC IN 2012 and lost 27-25 in 2011. Texas leads the series 61-33-3 and has recently owned this series 7-3 in the last ten games. A&M fans feel they can have a fair advantage against the Longhorns, as many from the Big 12 and the old Southwest conference felt like Texas ruled it with an iron fist. Quinn Ewers has had a quiet season, completing 68%of his passes, and Jaydon Blue has helped shoulder the rush load with 555 yards and six scores. 

The Aggie’s defense has a road map to disrupting Ewers; the Arkansas game with the three high safety looks confused him quite a lot. Like Georgia was able to do, between that and containment on the edge is the map to take down the Longhorns. Marcel Reed will need to be on point with that nasty Texas defense, which leads the conference in total defense and scoring defense, allowing just over 12 points a game. This will be the sandwich game of the week. Grab some leftovers and watch the pads pop in this intriguing matchup at 6:30 p.m. on ABC.

Texas – 24

Texas A&M – 21

No.7 Georgia (9-2) -19 vs Georgia Tech (7-4) on Friday 11/29/24 

Hope y’all are ready for some clean, Old-Fashioned hate Thanksgiving night with the Bulldogs facing the Ramble Wreck. The Bulldogs have dominated this series 20-3 dating back to 2001, and the last win streak Tech had in the series was 1998-2000. Georgia has won the previous five meetings by an average of 35 points. Georgia will need to lock in and give the Ramblin Wreck all they have because Tech’s offensive line is good, and that’s where this game will be won or lost. Haynes King has been sacked twice this season; I had to look it up again to ensure that the stat was correct and my eyes were not fooled. 

Carson Beck has been a turnover machine, averaging over an INT in a game. Georgia will need a big game from the Bulldog front seven on defense to limit King’s ability to scramble out of the pocket. Tech has two bad losses to Syracuse and Virginia Tech but did hand Miami their only blemish in their record, so the Yellowjackets can show up on the big stage and could ruin the firm grip Georgia has on a CFP berth, 6:30 p.m. on ABC.

Georgia Tech – 20

Georgia – 30

Vanderbilt (6-5, 3-4) vs No.8 Tennessee (9-2, 5-2) -10.5 

Is it the I-40 Bowl or the Smokey Mountain Bowl? Either way, you want to slice this pumpkin pie, but Vandy hasn’t fared well in recent years. Streaks are meant to be broken, and Tennessee has a five-game win streak over Vanderbilt heading into this one on Saturday morning. The Vols hold an 80-32-5 advantage in the series and have won the last five meetings. Vandy made a statement at the beginning of the year with a solid defensive effort, which has maintained this entire season. Diego Pavia’s emergence has been a bright spot. 

The Door’s just about pulled off the upset in Baton Rouge last week, and they host the Vols this week. Tennessee has sputtered in the back half of the season and looks ripe for the picking against a defense with a ton of tape on Iamaleava. The issue is how they will stop the SEC rush leader Dylan Sampson. First Bank Stadium has been a nightmare for road teams this year, just ask Alabama and Texas, but Tennessee will have their work cut out for them Saturday, 11 a.m. on ABC.

Tennessee – 17

Vanderbilt – 20

No.12 Clemson (9-2) -3 vs No.15 South Carolina (8-3) 

Clemson has dominated the Palmetto Bowl since 2013 with an 8-1 record, and the Tigers were dominant on the national stage then. The Tigers have been down due to a lack of success in competing at a high level. A win on Saturday will clinch a spot for Clemson in the CFP if they can get past SMU in the conference title game, but South Carolina. South Carolina snuck out a one-point win two years ago, and Shane Beamer has a squad that could dismantle the Clemson defense. 

Freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellars has had an outstanding campaign, completing 65% of his passes this year, plus adding 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. Running back Rocket Sanders has helped take pressure off of Sellars with rushing for over 800 yards and 11 scores; he rushed for a mere 209 yards in an injury-laden season at Arkansas in 2023; the Carolina defense faces possibly their toughest test against Tiger signal caller Cade Klubnick and running back Phil Mafah. Klubnick has thrown for over 2,700 yards and 29 touchdowns with four interceptions. Mafah has rushed for over 1,000 yards this season and eight scores. Statistically, Carolina has a stricter defense than Georgia, and Clemson had a terrible time producing any offensive rhythm, scoring a mere three points in the lopsided loss.  The team that can limit turnovers and execute in the run game has the best chance, and the money is on Carolina in this one, 11 a.m. on ESPN. 

South Carolina – 17

Clemson – 10

No.13 Alabama (8-3, 4-3) -11.5 vs Auburn (5-6, 2-5)

The Iron Bowl presents a chance for Hugh Freeze to do the impossible and guide Auburn to six wins and a bowl appearance after the fan base left them for dead. Alabama leads the series 50-37-1 and has won four in a row. The Tide should be ready for the Tigers after a bad loss to Oklahoma last week, scoring only three points from a turnover in the first half. Jalen Milroe was limited to operating in the pocket and couldn’t beat them with his feet. Alabama Head Coach Kalen DeBoer gets his first crack at Auburn, and the atmosphere is different than anything he has ever experienced. 

The Tigers stunned A&M in OT last weekend, and Peyton Thorne is playing to the expectations the War Eagle faithful expected. He was a turnover factory at the start of the season but has turned a corner in production lately. Thorne has ten touchdowns and two interceptions, completed 67% of his passes, averaged 19.6 completions, and won three of five games. Milore and company should be seething in the loss last week; Milroe failed to gain 200 total yards as the starting quarterback. This might be the worst time for Auburn to face Alabama, and the Crimson Tide won’t be letting off the gas on Saturday at 2:30 ABC.

Auburn – 10

Alabama – 45

No.14 Ole Miss (8-3,4-3) -26 vs Mississippi St. (2-9,0-7) on Friday 11/29/24

This is one of the South’s oldest rivalries, and the two schools lock up for the 91st time. The Rebels are still figuring out how and why they lost in Gainesville last week. Jaxon Dart’s untimely interception in the endzone with 1:32 left in the 4th quarter.  The state is coming off a tough loss to Mizzou that has struggled this season. Outside of 2018, this game has been a 10-point game for the last seven seasons. The Bulldogs snuck out of Oxford two years ago with a two-point win in an upset. I won’t rule anything out because this Bulldog offense is sneaky good, but the defense is bad. If the Rebels can stay away from the turnover bug, they can possibly sneak into the CFP, but they would need a lot of help and leap Bama and Clemson to get in. I don’t think Ole Miss covers this weekend after they were the hottest team in the top 25 a couple of weeks ago, 2:30 p.m. on ABC. 

Miss St. – 17

Ole Miss – 34

Kentucky (4-7) vs Louisville (7-4) -3

The Wildcats have won six of the last seven meetings by an average of 22 points, but they have had a terrible time with consistency. Louisville has played great at times, winning over Georgia Tech and Clemson, but it was an actual head-scratcher loss to a pitiful Stanford team two weeks ago. Kentucky stunned Ole Miss in Oxford for their lone SEC win, a stark comparison to the last few years. Blake Vandagriff was benched against Texas, and freshman Cutter Boley will get his first collegiate start in the Governor’s Cup game, head coach Mark Stoops announced during his weekly press conference Monday. Stoops and the company need consistency on offense, and the defense has had to do a lot of heavy lifting in the four wins. If Kentucky wants to extend its streak to seven, the defense must come through again at 11 a.m. on the SEC Network. 

Louisville – 20

Kentucky – 3

Florida St. (2-9) vs Florida (6-5) -14.5

This year’s page of the Sunshine Showdown has been a case of two teams dramatically moving in the opposite direction. The Noles were a top 10 team preseason, and they have had losing streaks of three and six games to end up to this point with a 2-9 record. On the other hand, Billy Napier was left in coaching limbo; boosters were ready to kick him out after game one this season. You add in losing Graham Mertz, their starting quarterback, and a host of off-field distractions with power brokers trying to sabotage him at every turn, and most would have just thrown in the towel; ask Brian Harsin. Now the Gators have wins against LSU and Ole Miss in consecutive weeks and have a chance to salvage the season and finish 7-5. DJ Lagway has been a saving grace to the offense, keeping plays alive with his feet; Florida St. will have problems with him on Saturday. The Gators will win convincingly, 6 p.m. on ESPN2.

Florida – 37

Florida St. – 3

LSU (7-4, 4-3) -6 vs Oklahoma (6-4, 2-5) 

No rivalry name here, and it’s the first time in program history that Oklahoma plays LSU at Tiger Stadium. It’s sort of a right of passage to play the Tigers at Death Valley at night and the Sooners. Before last week’s colossal home win against Alabama, Oklahoma was in jeopardy of snapping their 26-year streak of qualifying for a bowl game. That is preserved, and they take on LSU, which has had its fair share of problems this season. Garrett Nussmeir has single-handedly guided the offense; he’s first in completions (290), second in TD passes with 23, and fourth in percentage, 63.2%, despite a total lack of a rushing attack. He will have a tough time with a Sooner defense playing well the last couple of weeks and held the Tide to three points and 234 yards of offense. Jackson Arnold was lethal, shredding the Bama defense for 168 yards on the ground on 25 carries, 9-11 for 68 yards through the air. Brian Kelly’s defense must be ready for almost anything to succeed, 6 p.m. on ESPN.

Oklahoma – 23

LSU – 13

No.21 Missouri (8-3, 4-3) –3 vs Arkansas (6-5, 3-4)

The Battle Line Rivalry has been anything but that for the last few years. Arkansas has won this matchup twice since 2014; for Razorback fans, this has been a forced pseudo-rivalry after replacing the LSU rivalry game a few years ago. It was a bad look for head coach Eli Drinkwitz to mispronounce Razorback quarterback Taylen Green’s name in his media press conference on Monday after yelling at Mississippi State players during their win last week. Mizzou came in last year and pummeled Arkansas, and that sting was felt by the core group of Hogs that stayed on the roster this year, and they have payback on their minds. 

Arkansas has turned the tables on the three bad losses they had at home last year, beating Auburn and Mississippi St this year, and it could be a long day for the Tigers; the Razorbacks are missing Anton Juncaj, and Nico Davillier had shoulder surgery on Monday. Braylon Russell is listed as questionable, and both teams will need the run game because the forecast for CoMo Saturday is 1-3 inches of snow, which could benefit the Razorbacks, 2:30 p.m. on SEC Network. Here are the Hogville Writers picks for this one;

Otis Kirk / 31-21 Mizzou

Dudley Dawson / 27-17 Mizzou

Jerry Meadows / 38-20 Mizzou

John James / 34-18 Arkansas

Drake Priddy / 34-24 Mizzou

Jason Pattyson / 24-10 Arkansas